[Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences

Fri, 18 Jul 2003 21:15:17 -0700

I agree, Don.  My primary concern in 2050 will be landfill.

Tom Hansen
LMoscow, Idaho

> -----Original Message-----
> From: vision2020-admin@moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]On
> Behalf Of Don Kaag
> Sent: Friday, July 18, 2003 8:26 PM
> To: Vision2020
> Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's
> population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences
>
>
> Donovan:
>
> Good luck with the world overpopulation thing.  In 2050 I plan to be
> employed in the field of decomposition!
>
> Heh, heh,
> ("For all men, the world ends when they die".)
>
> Don
>
> On Friday, July 18, 2003, at 02:53 PM, Donovan Arnold wrote:
>
> > And the bad news is: If am still around in 2050 I probably won't know
> > what year it is or what 8.9 billion is. : )
> > Which is something that I look forward to. A day when no race,
> > religion, or culture rules the majority of the World, but instead,
> > everyone is a minority in their religion, nation, and race. A day when
> > all must respect all others to be respected themselves. : )
> >
> > Donovan J Arnold
> >
> >
> >> From: "Dale Courtney" <dale@courtneys.us>
> >> To: <vision2020@moscow.com>
> >> Subject: [Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's
> >> population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences
> >> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2003 12:27:49 -0700
> >>
> >> 	The UN, whose past population predictions have been fairly accurate,
> >> predicts that
> >> - The world's population will *increase* from just over 6 billion in
> >> 2000 to
> >> 8.9 billion by 2050.
> >> - During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries
> >> that
> >> should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to *fall* by 6%,
> >> from 482m
> >> to 454m.
> >>
> >> 	For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline is
> >> dramatic.
> >> - By 2050 the number of Italians should fall from 57.5m in 2000 to
> >> around
> >> 45m
> >> - Spain's population should droop from 40m to 37m.
> >> - Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find
> >> itself
> >> with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to
> >> recent
> >> projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: "Even assuming (no doubt
> >> unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's
> >> population
> >> would decline to about 50m by 2100."
> >>
> >> 	Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and the
> >> economic and political consequences are alarming.
> >> - In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for
> >> every 100
> >> people of working age.
> >> - By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners
> >> for
> >> every 100 workers;
> >> - In Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected
> >> to be
> >> one-to-one.
> >>
> >> 	Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of current
> >> tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar
> >> to fund
> >> the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The
> >> cost is
> >> already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that
> >> average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their
> >> wages into
> >> the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.
> >>
> >> 	Either Europe must effect a radical cutback in pensions and health
> >> care for seniors, or Europe must import scores of millions of
> >> internationals
> >> (mostly Arabs and Africans) to care for the elderly and pay the taxes
> >> to
> >> sustain their welfare states.
> >>
> >> 	The UN's statistics department
> >> (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/default.htm) and population
> >> division
> >> (http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm) have information on world
> >> demographic trends.
> >> 	See also the French Institute of International Relations
> >> (http://www.ifri.org/frontDispatcher).
> >> 	The above numbers and trends were reported in the 17 July edition of
> >> The Economist.
> >>
> >> Best,
> >> Dale Courtney
> >> Moscow, Idaho
> >>
> >>
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