[Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences

[Don Kaag]

Donovan:

Good luck with the world overpopulation thing.  In 2050 I plan to be 
employed in the field of decomposition!

Heh, heh,
("For all men, the world ends when they die".)

Don

On Friday, July 18, 2003, at 02:53 PM, Donovan Arnold wrote:

> And the bad news is: If am still around in 2050 I probably won't know 
> what year it is or what 8.9 billion is. : )
> Which is something that I look forward to. A day when no race, 
> religion, or culture rules the majority of the World, but instead, 
> everyone is a minority in their religion, nation, and race. A day when 
> all must respect all others to be respected themselves. : )
>
> Donovan J Arnold
>
>
>> From: "Dale Courtney" <dale@courtneys.us>
>> To: <vision2020@moscow.com>
>> Subject: [Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's 
>> population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences
>> Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2003 12:27:49 -0700
>>
>> 	The UN, whose past population predictions have been fairly accurate,
>> predicts that
>> - The world's population will *increase* from just over 6 billion in 
>> 2000 to
>> 8.9 billion by 2050.
>> - During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries 
>> that
>> should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to *fall* by 6%, 
>> from 482m
>> to 454m.
>>
>> 	For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline is
>> dramatic.
>> - By 2050 the number of Italians should fall from 57.5m in 2000 to 
>> around
>> 45m
>> - Spain's population should droop from 40m to 37m.
>> - Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find 
>> itself
>> with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to 
>> recent
>> projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: "Even assuming (no doubt
>> unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's 
>> population
>> would decline to about 50m by 2100."
>>
>> 	Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and the
>> economic and political consequences are alarming.
>> - In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for 
>> every 100
>> people of working age.
>> - By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners 
>> for
>> every 100 workers;
>> - In Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected 
>> to be
>> one-to-one.
>>
>> 	Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of current
>> tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar 
>> to fund
>> the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The 
>> cost is
>> already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that
>> average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their 
>> wages into
>> the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.
>>
>> 	Either Europe must effect a radical cutback in pensions and health
>> care for seniors, or Europe must import scores of millions of 
>> internationals
>> (mostly Arabs and Africans) to care for the elderly and pay the taxes 
>> to
>> sustain their welfare states.
>>
>> 	The UN's statistics department
>> (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/default.htm) and population 
>> division
>> (http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm) have information on world
>> demographic trends.
>> 	See also the French Institute of International Relations
>> (http://www.ifri.org/frontDispatcher).
>> 	The above numbers and trends were reported in the 17 July edition of
>> The Economist.
>>
>> Best,
>> Dale Courtney
>> Moscow, Idaho
>>
>>
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