[Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's populat ion is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences

[Thomas Hansen]

Greetings Visionaires:

To me respect is not a "quid pro quo" thing.  "Respect me and I will respect
you" doesn't work and never will.  Respect is earned.

Tom Hansen

-----Original Message-----
From: Douglas [mailto:dougwils@moscow.com]
Sent: Friday, July 18, 2003 3:18 PM
To: vision2020@moscow.com
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's
population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences



Dear visionaries,

Donovan hopes for "a day when all must respect all others to be respected 
themselves."

And we all know how good the human race is at *that.* As we used to say in 
the Navy, stand by for heavy rolls.

Cordially,

Douglas Wilson



>Donovan J Arnold
>
>
>>From: "Dale Courtney" <dale@courtneys.us>
>>To: <vision2020@moscow.com>
>>Subject: [Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population 
>>is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences
>>Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2003 12:27:49 -0700
>>
>>         The UN, whose past population predictions have been fairly
accurate,
>>predicts that
>>- The world's population will *increase* from just over 6 billion in 2000
to
>>8.9 billion by 2050.
>>- During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries that
>>should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to *fall* by 6%, from
482m
>>to 454m.
>>
>>         For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline
is
>>dramatic.
>>- By 2050 the number of Italians should fall from 57.5m in 2000 to around
>>45m
>>- Spain's population should droop from 40m to 37m.
>>- Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find
itself
>>with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to recent
>>projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: "Even assuming (no doubt
>>unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's population
>>would decline to about 50m by 2100."
>>
>>         Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and
the
>>economic and political consequences are alarming.
>>- In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for every 100
>>people of working age.
>>- By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners for
>>every 100 workers;
>>- In Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected to be
>>one-to-one.
>>
>>         Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of
current
>>tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar to
fund
>>the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The cost is
>>already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that
>>average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their wages
into
>>the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.
>>
>>         Either Europe must effect a radical cutback in pensions and
health
>>care for seniors, or Europe must import scores of millions of
internationals
>>(mostly Arabs and Africans) to care for the elderly and pay the taxes to
>>sustain their welfare states.
>>
>>         The UN's statistics department
>>(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/default.htm) and population
division
>>(http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm) have information on world
>>demographic trends.
>>         See also the French Institute of International Relations
>>(http://www.ifri.org/frontDispatcher).
>>         The above numbers and trends were reported in the 17 July edition
of
>>The Economist.
>>
>>Best,
>>Dale Courtney
>>Moscow, Idaho
>>
>>
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 List services made available by First Step Internet, 
 serving the communities of the Palouse since 1994.   
               http://www.fsr.net                       
          mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com
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