[Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences

[Douglas]

Dear visionaries,

Donovan hopes for "a day when all must respect all others to be respected 
themselves."

And we all know how good the human race is at *that.* As we used to say in 
the Navy, stand by for heavy rolls.

Cordially,

Douglas Wilson



>Donovan J Arnold
>
>
>>From: "Dale Courtney" <dale@courtneys.us>
>>To: <vision2020@moscow.com>
>>Subject: [Vision2020] Europe's population implosion: Europe's population 
>>is shrinking and greying-with grim consequences
>>Date: Fri, 18 Jul 2003 12:27:49 -0700
>>
>>         The UN, whose past population predictions have been fairly accurate,
>>predicts that
>>- The world's population will *increase* from just over 6 billion in 2000 to
>>8.9 billion by 2050.
>>- During the same period, however, the population of the 27 countries that
>>should be members of the EU by 2007 is predicted to *fall* by 6%, from 482m
>>to 454m.
>>
>>         For countries with particularly low fertility rates, the decline is
>>dramatic.
>>- By 2050 the number of Italians should fall from 57.5m in 2000 to around
>>45m
>>- Spain's population should droop from 40m to 37m.
>>- Germany, which currently has a population of around 80m, could find itself
>>with just 25m inhabitants by the end of this century, according to recent
>>projections by Deutsche Bank, which adds: "Even assuming (no doubt
>>unrealistically high) annual immigration of 250,000, Germany's population
>>would decline to about 50m by 2100."
>>
>>         Combine a shrinking population with rising life expectancy, and the
>>economic and political consequences are alarming.
>>- In Europe there are currently 35 people of pensionable age for every 100
>>people of working age.
>>- By 2050, on present demographic trends, there will be 75 pensioners for
>>every 100 workers;
>>- In Spain and Italy the ratio of pensioners to workers is projected to be
>>one-to-one.
>>
>>         Since pensions in Germany, France and Italy are paid out of current
>>tax revenue, the obvious implication is that taxes will have to soar to fund
>>the pretty generous pensions that Europeans have got used to. The cost is
>>already stretching government finances. Deutsche Bank calculates that
>>average earners in Germany are already paying around 29% of their wages into
>>the state pension pot, while the figure in Italy is close to 33%.
>>
>>         Either Europe must effect a radical cutback in pensions and health
>>care for seniors, or Europe must import scores of millions of internationals
>>(mostly Arabs and Africans) to care for the elderly and pay the taxes to
>>sustain their welfare states.
>>
>>         The UN's statistics department
>>(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/default.htm) and population division
>>(http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm) have information on world
>>demographic trends.
>>         See also the French Institute of International Relations
>>(http://www.ifri.org/frontDispatcher).
>>         The above numbers and trends were reported in the 17 July edition of
>>The Economist.
>>
>>Best,
>>Dale Courtney
>>Moscow, Idaho
>>
>>
>>_____________________________________________________
>>  List services made available by First Step Internet,
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>>           mailto:Vision2020@moscow.com
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