[Vision2020] ENSO: Recent Evolution: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2018

[Ted Moffett]

Next three months warmer and drier than average?  September 20,
2018 prediction maps below indicate this trend...

But look at the 1972-3 (with other winters) strong El Nino temperature
map... Pacific Northwest colder than average!  Article on El Nino winters
since 1950 at bottom.

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/ENSO_USimpacts_temp_newONI_lrg.jpg
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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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*ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions *

*1 October 2018*
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

* "There is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Northern Hemisphere
fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to 65-70% during winter
2018-19.* "*

*-------------------------------------*

*http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif>*

*------------------------------------------------------------------------------*

*http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif
<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif>*


*---------------------------------------------------*

*https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/winter-temperature-patterns-every-el-ni%C3%B1o-1950
<https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/winter-temperature-patterns-every-el-ni%C3%B1o-1950>*
Winter temperature patterns for every El Niño since 1950
Author:
Rebecca Lindsey <https://www.climate.gov/author/rebecca-lindsey>
February 5, 2016

The tropical Pacific climate pattern known as "ENSO," which is short for El
Niño-Southern Oscillation, has its strongest influence on the U.S. climate
during winter (December-February). El Niño in general acts to tilt the odds
toward wetter and cooler than average conditions across much of the South,
and toward drier and warmer conditions in many of the northern regions. El
Niño's influence, however, is more reliable on precipitation than
temperature, as these maps show.

The collection of maps at right show the difference from average
(1981-2010) winter temperature (December-February) in each U.S. climate
division during strong (dark gray bar), moderate (medium gray), and weak
(light gray) El Niño events since 1950. Years are ranked from strongest El
Niño (top left) to weakest (bottom right)‚ based on the maximum seasonal
Oceanic Niño index value observed.

These maps were published on our ENSO blog as part of the 2015-16 winter
outlook post
<https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa%E2%80%99s-outlook-reveals-what-conditions-are-favored>
by Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center. In
it, he pointed out that compared to precipitation, temperature patterns are
much less consistent, even during the strongest events. In the top row,
which shows winter temperatures during the four strongest (not including
the ongoing event) El Niños in the historical record, the first two events
seem to share a pattern in which all but the bottom left quadrant of the
country is much warmer than average.

But then that pattern is broken for the next two strong events, during
which the U.S. experienced a cooler than average winter almost everywhere,
save for a few small pockets of slightly warmer than average temperatures
whose location isn't the same in both years.

This variability from one E Niño to the next is one reason why CPC
scientists always talk about seasonal climate outlooks in terms of "odds,"
"chances," or "probabilities"—not guarantees. The latest monthly
temperature outlook
<https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/tempoutlook-monthly-cpc-2016-01-31>
is available in our Data Snapshots map gallery.

*Maps by NOAA Climate.gov, based on NCDC climate division
<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/maps/us-climate-divisions.php%20%29>
data provided by <http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/> the
Physical Sciences Division at NOAA ESRL*
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