[Vision2020] 1-1-2018 Nature Climate Change: Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification

[Ted Moffett]

Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4
Keeping global warming within 1.5 °C constrains emergence of aridification

   - Chang-Eui Park
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-1>1
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff1>,
   - Su-Jong Jeong
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-2>  ORCID:
   orcid.org/0000-0003-4586-4534 <http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4586-4534>1
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff1>,
   - Manoj Joshi <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-3>
   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811
   <http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2948-2811>2
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff2>,
   - Timothy J. Osborn
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-4>  ORCID:
   orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799 <http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8425-6799>2
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff2>,
   - Chang-Hoi Ho <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-5>
   3 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff3>,
   - Shilong Piao <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-6>
   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-2292
   <http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-2292>4
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff4>,5
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff5>,6
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff6>,
   - Deliang Chen <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-7>
   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-0288-5618
   <http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0288-5618>7
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff7>,
   - Junguo Liu <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-8>1
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff1>,
   - Hong Yang <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-9>8
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff8>,9
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff9>,
   - Hoonyoung Park
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-10>  ORCID:
   orcid.org/0000-0002-7856-5218 <http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7856-5218>3
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff3>,
   - Baek-Min Kim
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-11>10
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff10> &
   - […]
   - Song Feng <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#auth-12>11
   <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#Aff11>
   - - Show fewer authors


   - *Nature Climate Change** 8*, 70–74 (2018)
   - doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0034-4
   - Received:21 June 2017Accepted:22 November 2017Published online:01
   January 2018

Abstract
Aridity—the ratio of atmospheric water supply (precipitation; *P*) to
demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET)—is projected to decrease (that
is, areas will become drier) as a consequence of anthropogenic climate
change, exacerbating land degradation and desertification1
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR1>,2
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR2>,3
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR3>,4
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR4>,5
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR5>,6
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR6>. However, the
timing of significant aridification relative to natural variability—defined
here as the time of emergence for aridification (ToEA)—is unknown, despite
its importance in designing and implementing mitigation policies7
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR7>,8
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR8>,9
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR9>,10
<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0034-4#ref-CR10>. Here we
estimate ToEA from projections of 27 global climate models (GCMs) under
representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and in
doing so, identify where emergence occurs before global mean warming
reaches 1.5 °C and 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. On the basis of the
ensemble median ToEA for each grid cell, aridification emerges over 32%
(RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) of the total land surface before the ensemble
median of global mean temperature change reaches 2 °C in each scenario.
Moreover, ToEA is avoided in about two-thirds of the above regions if the
maximum global warming level is limited to 1.5 °C. Early action for
accomplishing the 1.5 °C temperature goal can therefore markedly reduce the
likelihood that large regions will face substantial aridification and
related impacts.
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