[Vision2020] Debate Helps Hillary Regain a Good Lead

[Nicholas Gier]

September 29, 2016
Clinton Leads in Key Battlegrounds; Seen As Big Debate Winner

New Public Policy Polling surveys in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina,
Pennsylvania, and Virginia, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund,
find Hillary Clinton leading in each state. Voters in all five states see
Clinton as having been the runaway winner of Monday night’s debate, and
they question Donald Trump’s temperament and preparedness for office.

Clinton has solid leads in Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia- states
seen as important to her path to 270 electoral votes- and modest leads in
Florida and North Carolina, where wins would be indicative of a dominant
overall victory in the Electoral College. If these results hold up, Donald
Trump has no path to victory:

State

4 Way Horse Race

2 Way Horse Race

Colorado

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 51, Trump 44

Florida

Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1

Clinton 48, Trump 45

North Carolina

Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 7

Clinton 49, Trump 45

Pennsylvania

Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 49, Trump 44

Virginia

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1

Clinton 49, Trump 43

The debate Monday night is one of the things giving Clinton a big boost. In
all of these states she’s seen as having won it by a wide margin:

State

Debate Winner

Colorado

Clinton 53, Trump 31

Florida

Clinton 52, Trump 35

North Carolina

Clinton 53, Trump 31

Pennsylvania

Clinton 51, Trump 32

Virginia

Clinton 54, Trump 30

One area where Clinton particularly received a boost Monday night is with
voters under 30. They overwhelmingly see Clinton as the winner and they’re
starting to vote for her in larger numbers than they had before:

State

Debate Winner

4 Way Horse Race

2 Way Horse Race

Colorado

Clinton 64, Trump 23

Clinton 50, Trump 27, Johnson 15, Stein 2

Clinton 62, Trump 34

Florida

Clinton 65, Trump 32

Clinton 54, Trump 28, Johnson 4, Stein 4

Clinton 63, Trump 35

North Carolina

Clinton 59, Trump 17

Clinton 46, Trump 27, Johnson 19

Clinton 56, Trump 32

Pennsylvania

Clinton 53, Trump 24

Clinton 45, Trump 22, Johnson 11, Stein 4

Clinton 57, Trump 35

Virginia

Clinton 53, Trump 24

Clinton 44, Johnson 24, Trump 21, Stein 2

Clinton 50, Trump 24

Clinton has at least a 19 point lead with young voters in the full field in
each state, leads of 24-28 points in a head to head match up with Trump,
and is seen as the debate winner by 29-42 points with young voters in this
set of states.

Monday night’s debate created large contrasts in voters’ minds when it
comes to whether each candidate is prepared to be President, has the
temperament to be President, and can be trusted with nuclear weapons. On
all three of those tests Donald Trump fails miserably:

State

Prepared to be President (Yes/No)

Temperament to be President (Yes/No)

Can be Trusted with Nuclear Weapons (Yes/No)

Colorado

34/60

35/61

38/56

Florida

40/55

40/53

40/52

North Carolina

35/60

35/57

38/55

Pennsylvania

37/56

38/56

40/54

Virginia

36/59

35/61

39/56

Only 34-40% of voters in these key states thinks Trump is prepared to be
President, only 35-40% think he has the temperament to be President, and
only 38-40% think he can be trusted with nuclear weapons.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, passes all three of these tests with
voters in these states:

State

Prepared to be President (Yes/No)

Temperament to be President (Yes/No)

Can be Trusted with Nuclear Weapons (Yes/No)

Colorado

53/45

53/43

53/41

Florida

50/47

51/44

49/44

North Carolina

53/44

52/44

53/40

Pennsylvania

52/43

51/41

52/41

Virginia

51/45

53/44

54/41

Majorities of voters in all five states think Clinton is both prepared and
has the temperament to be President.

Trump does win out when matched against Clinton on one measure we tested
though: which candidate would be more likely as President to cause a
nuclear war. There is at least an 18 point nuclear war gap to Trump’s
disadvantage in every state:

State

More Likely To Cause a Nuclear War

Colorado

Trump 51, Clinton 31

Florida

Trump 50, Clinton 32

North Carolina

Trump 51, Clinton 30

Pennsylvania

Trump 50, Clinton 29

Virginia

Trump 53, Clinton 31

Finally we find that voters in all 5 of these states are strongly opposed
to privatizing health care services provided by the Department of Veterans
Affairs, and that opposition cuts across party lines:

State

Overall Privatization

With Democrats

With Republicans

Colorado

27% Support, 64% Oppose

23/70

33/59

Florida

27% Support, 61% Oppose

24/64

36/55

North Carolina

26% Support, 62% Oppose

19/71

35/53

Pennsylvania

27% Support, 62% Oppose

24/67

31/56

Virginia

27% Support, 65% Oppose

22/69

31/60

-- 

A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they
shall never sit in.

-Greek proverb

“Enlightenment is man’s emergence from his self-imposed immaturity.
Immaturity is the inability to use one’s understanding without guidance
from another. This immaturity is self- imposed when its cause lies not in
lack of understanding, but in lack of resolve and courage to use it without
guidance from another. Sapere Aude! ‘Have courage to use your own
understand-ing!—that is the motto of enlightenment.

--Immanuel Kant
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