[Vision2020] 5-12-13: Journal "Nature Climate Change:" Widespread Global Loss of Common Plants and Animals

[Ted Moffett]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/05/130512140946.htm
Climate Change Will Cause Widespread Global-Scale Loss of Common Plants and
Animals, Researchers Predict

May 12, 2013 — More than half of common plants and one third of the animals
could see a dramatic decline this century due to climate change, according
to research from the University of East Anglia.

Research published today in the journal *Nature Climate Change* looked at
50,000 globally widespread and common species and found that more than one
half of the plants and one third of the animals will lose more than half of
their climatic range by 2080 if nothing is done to reduce the amount of
global warming and slow it down.

This means that geographic ranges of common plants and animals will shrink
globally and biodiversity will decline almost everywhere.

Plants, reptiles and particularly amphibians are expected to be at highest
risk. Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, Amazonia and Australia would
lose the most species of plants and animals. And a major loss of plant
species is projected for North Africa, Central Asia and South-eastern
Europe.

But acting quickly to mitigate climate change could reduce losses by 60 per
cent and buy an additional 40 years for species to adapt. This is because
this mitigation would slow and then stop global temperatures from rising by
more than two degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial times (1765).
Without this mitigation, global temperatures could rise by 4 degrees
Celsius by 2100.

The study was led by Dr Rachel Warren from UEA's school of Environmental
Sciences and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Collaborators
include Dr.Jeremy VanDerWal at James Cook University in Australia and Dr
Jeff Price, also at UEA's school of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall
Centre. The research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council
(NERC).

Dr Warren said: "While there has been much research on the effect of
climate change on rare and endangered species, little has been known about
how an increase in global temperature will affect more common species.

"This broader issue of potential range loss in widespread species is a
serious concern as even small declines in these species can significantly
disrupt ecosystems.

"Our research predicts that climate change will greatly reduce the
diversity of even very common species found in most parts of the world.
This loss of global-scale biodiversity would significantly impoverish the
biosphere and the ecosystem services it provides.

"We looked at the effect of rising global temperatures, but other symptoms
of climate change such as extreme weather events, pests, and diseases mean
that our estimates are probably conservative. Animals in particular may
decline more as our predictions will be compounded by a loss of food from
plants.

"There will also be a knock-on effect for humans because these species are
important for things like water and air purification, flood control,
nutrient cycling, and eco-tourism.

"The good news is that our research provides crucial new evidence of how
swift action to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gases can prevent the
biodiversity loss by reducing the amount of global warming to 2 degrees
Celsius rather than 4 degrees. This would also buy time -- up to four
decades -- for plants and animals to adapt to the remaining 2 degrees of
climate change."

The research team quantified the benefits of acting now to mitigate climate
change and found that up to 60 per cent of the projected climatic range
loss for biodiversity can be avoided.

Dr Warren said: "Prompt and stringent action to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions globally would reduce these biodiversity losses by 60 per cent if
global emissions peak in 2016, or by 40 per cent if emissions peak in 2030,
showing that early action is very beneficial. This will both reduce the
amount of climate change and also slow climate change down, making it
easier for species and humans to adapt."

Information on the current distributions of the species used in this
research came from the datasets shared online by hundreds of volunteers,
scientists and natural history collections through the Global Biodiversity
Information Facility (GBIF).

Co-author Dr Jeff Price, also from UEA's school of Environmental Studies,
said: "Without free and open access to massive amounts of data such as
those made available online through GBIF, no individual researcher is able
to contact every country, every museum, every scientist holding the data
and pull it all together. So this research would not be possible without
GBIF and its global community of researchers and volunteers who make their
data freely available."

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Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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