[Vision2020] Interesting arctic temperature anomaly
Paul Rumelhart
godshatter at yahoo.com
Thu Jun 27 08:45:31 PDT 2013
I've been following the conditions at the arctic ice cap, as I have for
a number of years. This year, I've found something strange. Every year,
I follow the plots of mean temperature above 80 degrees N. I get these
graphs from the Watt's Up With That? sea ice page
(http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/), but if you
have religious reasons why you won't go there, you can find the same
information here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
If you look at the current graph of arctic mean temperature above the
80th parallel for 2013 (which I've attached to this email) and compare
it to the one from last year (which I've also attached), you'll see that
the mean temperature is following the blue line (the 0 degrees C line),
instead of the green one (which is from the ERA40 temperature model),
which is what past years have followed. I've looked at all the graphs
linked on the ocean.dmi.dk site, and only one shows this kind of
behavior, going back to 1958. That one is 2009, which I've also attached.
I'm just curious what is going on here. At first I thought it was
following the 0C line because fresh water ice was melting before sea
water ice, because I thought that sea water melted at a slightly higher
temperature. It actually melts at a lower temperature (~ -1.9C). The
maximum temperature for that area at this time of year is dominated by
the ice melt, meaning that almost all of the sun's energy is going into
the phase change from solid to liquid water instead of heating the
atmosphere. So I'm at a loss to explain why the mean temperature in
that area is lower than expected.
Any ideas?
The minimum sea ice extent and area for 2009 was the highest in the last
few years, which makes me wonder if 2013 will also be a "recovery"
year. I've attached today's sea ice extent and area graphs, which show
2013 doing much better than 2012 and more-or-less following the 2009
levels. That's not to say that we couldn't have another record loss
year, it will depend on what the jet stream does. If we get another
wonky oscillating jet stream like we did in recent years, all bets are off.
And yes, I'm not a climate scientist. Deal with it. I still feel, for
some odd reason, that I have the right to ask questions.
Paul
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