[Vision2020] Why are most meteorologists climate change skeptics?
Paul Rumelhart
godshatter at yahoo.com
Thu Feb 23 17:59:43 PST 2012
Here is a link to an article in the Huffington Post that asks the
question "Why do Meteorologists Dismiss Climate Change Science?":
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marvin-meadors/why-do-meteorologists-dis_b_1289630.html
I was hoping this article would look into this fact from a standpoint of
"what factors might be involved that cause so many meteorologists to
question the anthropogenic global warming theory?" What could cause
this skepticism? I had then assumed that they would go through those
reasons and explain why they might be confused from an "AGW theory is
right by divine providence" viewpoint. It was too much to hope that
they would simply raise the issues as open questions and let people
think for themselves.
That's why I was surprised that they didn't even do that. They
basically took the stance that not only is AGW correct, but climate
scientists are infallible and your basic weatherman is an uneducated
lout. It was told from a slightly contemptuous "look at those crazy
people!" angle. They barely even referred to "climate is not weather".
They mumbled something about how those cretins question climate models
merely because the ones that are used in meteorology are laughingly
inaccurate. But the climate models made by Real Climate Scientists
predicted Mt. Pinatubo! *rolls eyes*
So what might make 76% of meteorologists as a group skeptical that man's
influence is the primary cause of global warming and a whopping 29%
think it's a scam? Here are a few reasons to think about.
The first is the one that they ran with. Climate scientists have
doctorates in related fields and many meteorologists you see on TV
don't. Read the article for more info on this. I would like to point
out that while they don't have doctorates in Climatology or a related
field, they do know your local weather and how that is affected by
global conditions that are relevant well. They are a step beyond the
old-timer that knows the seasons. And since climatology is, under the
hood, the study of weather (among other topics), this might mean
something. They are a bit more knowledgeable than your average Joe on
the topic, and they are much more skeptical. This should raise some red
flags somewhere, and not in the "we need to debunk these guys" sense.
Another reason was also mentioned in the article. From what it sounds
like, the current state of weather prediction via computer models is
sorely lame. Granted, the weather is extremely chaotic - but I would
expect them to being doing better, or at least be more consistent
amongst the different models. Since much of climate science is
predicated on models, this should worry people. I'd hate to bet the
farm on a computer model that hasn't been dialed in more than your
average web browser has.
One more reason that I think that meteorologists are more skeptical:
they deal day-to-day with the reality of temperature fluctuations. They
see how much the temperature fluctuates from early morning to mid
afternoon. They see how one day can be much warmer or cooler than the
previous one. Alaska saw as much as a 90F change in temperature between
one day and the next this current winter. They also see the size of the
temperature changes as the seasons change, and how the days compare
year-to-year. They see the changes in the jet stream, the changes in
precipitation, and so forth. Is it not reasonable to be skeptical of
scientists that take all these temperature swings, from all over the
globe, and come down with one number per year for a temperature
anomaly? That they measure 1F of increase over 90 years from a dataset
that varies wildly day-to-day, county-to-county, land-to-sea, altitude
to altitude by large orders of magnitude more than this? I wish they
would have at least touched on this.
Anyway, I'm done ranting now. I wish reporters had the luxury to treat
this as any other scientific field and not be pressured by their fears
that This Is Too Important Not to Treat Seriously.
Paul
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