[Vision2020] U of I: 20 Million Climate Science Grant: U of I Scientist Von Walden: Regional Ave. Temp. Expected Increase 2 Celsius by 2050.

[Ted Moffett]

Editor, Lewiston Morning Tribune:

The February 19, 2011 Joel Mills article on the U of I climate change grant
implies that adaptation, rather than mitigation, to climate change is a
rational approach to addressing the problem, given no emphasis is placed on
the necessity for substantial mitigation efforts as soon as possible.

This is irresponsible journalism.

I am not saying that studying the impacts and preparing to adapt to climate
change is not needed.  It is needed very much, given that the scientific
evidence is compelling that significant anthropogenic impacts on Earth's
climate system are at this point unavoidable.  What I am saying, is that
every discussion of adaptation should emphasize that mitigation of
continuing anthropogenic impacts that can cause continuing and more severe
climate change (CO2 emissions), is necessary.

Mills' article below could easily lead a reader to assume that the problem
of anthropogenic climate change is being responsibly addressed via
adaptation studies. For example, the claim that regional temperatures are
expected to increase by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050, is not accompanied by the
competent science demonstrating that by 2100 much greater temperature
increases are likely.

Consider the findings of peer reviewed published science from MIT in 2009,
regarding potential temperature increases by 2100: "Probabilistic Forecast
for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without
Policy) and Climate
Parameters"<http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2009JCLI2863.1&ct=1>
The new projections, published in the American Meteorological Society's
Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2
degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees.

The adaptations taken to adjust to a regional temperature increase of 2
degrees Celsius by 2050 could be rendered inadequate considering the
temperature increases predicted by this MIT study for 2100.  To not address
this point is to not inform the reader of the substantial risks posed by not
immediately implementing substantial reductions in CO2 emissions, as the MIT
paper referenced here indicates.

Ted Moffett
1097 Canyon Rd.
Moscow, Idaho 83843
208-882-8643
email: starbliss at gmail.com

News article below from the Lewiston Morning Tribune
http://www.techzone360.com/news/2011/02/19/5324934.htm

  *February 19, 2011*

UI gets grant to study climate change

MOSCOW, Feb 19, 2011 (The Lewiston Morning Tribune - McClatchy-Tribune
Information Services via COMTEX) -- The University of Idaho announced the
largest single grant in its history Friday, a $20 million award to study and
plan for how climate change will affect cereal grain production in the
Pacific Northwest.

The five-year U.S. Department of Agriculture grant will be administered by
the UI and shared with Washington State University and the University of
Oregon.

"Warmer weather and more variable precipitation are coming," said UI
entomologist Sanford Eigenbrode by phone from Washington, D.C.

That change in climate will require a change in how Northwest farmers
operate so crop yields and agricultural jobs can be protected, Eigenbrode
said.

He and a multidisciplinary team from the three land-grant universities will
focus on the cereal production systems of the Columbia River basin and
plateau and the Palouse to adjust management strategies under the projected
climate change scenarios for the region.

Cereal grains are a large portion of the regional economy, with sales of
$1.5 billion in 2009. That year, the Northwest grew 13 percent of the
nation's wheat and 80 percent of its soft white wheat exports, according to
the UI.

UI geography professors Von P. Walden and John Abatzoglou said regional
average temperatures are expected to rise by 2 degrees Celsius by 2050.

"It shifts the distribution of temperatures so that you might realize more
extreme events," Walden said.

That could mean decreased snowpacks due to more rain than snowfall, he said.

To put a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature in perspective, Walden
said that during the last ice age, the planet was only 8-10 degrees Celsius
colder than today. "So a 2 degree Celsius change in the other direction is a
pretty big difference." The grant announcement brought together
administrators, faculty members, students and the media -- both in person
and via teleconference -- in the UI agricultural science and biotechnology
buildings.

Deans spoke about the importance of the research for the future of crop
production, education and team building within and between their respective
institutions. Vice presidents spoke of the importance of federal funding to
supplement ever-shrinking state support for research.

But the future of the entire $20 million grant is uncertain. With
Republicans in Congress pushing for deep budget cuts, especially in the
areas of earmarks and special projects, some worried the celebration could
be short-lived.

"All of the funding agencies are in the crosshairs right now," UI Vice
President for Research and Economic Development Jack McIver said.

The first year of funding for the project is committed, "as far as I know,"
McIver said. But funding for the remaining years will be up to Congress.

Without federal funding, this type of work will be impossible, said John
Hammel, dean of the UI College of Agricultural and Life Sciences.

"These competitive grants are going to be more and more important to getting
these projects done," Hammel said.

Oregon State University College of Agricultural Sciences Dean Sonny
Ramasway, speaking by phone, said projects like the climate change study are
already being hit hard in current budget proposals in the U.S. House of
Representatives. Defunding them will harm American competitiveness in global
markets, he said.

And McIver said the funding will save faculty and staff jobs at the
universities, and keep some faculty members from leaving for better-paying
jobs by supplementing their salaries. It will also fund more than a dozen
new graduate students.

The educational aspect of the project will also reach into K-12 classrooms,
Eigenbrode said. The universities have already conducted a survey of 1,000
teachers to see what kinds of materials and knowledge they need to
incorporate climate change lessons in their classrooms.

Eventually, summer training sessions for teachers will be conducted, he
said.

In all, 22 principal investigators, 14 graduate students, three
post-graduate researchers and several technical and administrative staffers
will work on the project. Their areas of expertise include agronomy, climate
and atmospheric science, entomology, plant science, weed science, sociology,
soil science, ecology, agricultural economics, education and extension and
information science.

Mills may be contacted at jmills at lmtribune.com or (208) 883-0564.

To see more of The Lewiston Morning Tribune or to subscribe to the
newspaper, go to http://www.lmtribune.com. Copyright (c) 2011, The Lewiston
Morning Tribune, Idaho Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information
Services. For more information about the content services offered by
McClatchy-Tribune Information Services (MCT), visit www.mctinfoservices.com.

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