[Vision2020] 2009 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: "Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions."

[Ted Moffett]

There is substantial scientific theory and fact that the changes in
the Earth's climate system we are responsible for inducing due to
dumping hundreds of billions of tons of CO2 into our atmosphere (and
other impacts) will result in millennial time scale costs, the
economic significance of which is incomprehensible given the short
term decadal focus of our current economic calculations:

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/01/28/0812721106.full.pdf+html

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19179281

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Feb 10;106(6):1704-9. Epub 2009 Jan 28.

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions.
Solomon S, Plattner GK, Knutti R, Friedlingstein P.

Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305, USA.
susan.solomon at noaa.gov

Abstract

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only
on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for
irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes
place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely
irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation
of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases
radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat
to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop
significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative
irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per
million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450-600 ppmv over the coming
century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several
regions comparable to those of the "dust bowl" era and inexorable sea
level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a
conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise
of at least 0.4-1.0 m if 21st century CO(2) concentrations exceed 600
ppmv and 0.6-1.9 m for peak CO(2) concentrations exceeding
approximately 1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and
ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may
equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.
------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett