[Vision2020] Statesman: Idahoans want it both ways

[Ron Force]

November 21, 2010
Our View: Idahoans speak up. They want it both ways.
 - Idaho Statesman

Are Idahoans hoping for the best — or are they hopelessly out of touch with 
reality? It’s tough to tell.

Idahoans are pretty clear that they don’t want further cuts to education  or 
Medicaid. A recent survey, conducted by the Republican polling firm  Moore 
Information, pegged the opposition at 82 percent and 76 percent,  respectively.

But in that same poll of registered voters, Idahoans were nearly as dead  set 
against sales or income tax increases — 65 percent opposition, in  both cases.

Sounds great.

But here’s the reality check.


	*  Idaho is staring at a potential 2011-12 shortfall of $340 million.

	*  That shortfall represents 14 percent of the budget.

	*  During the 2010 legislative session, the public schools’ budget  took a 7.5 
percent cut. The cut for higher education was 11.3 percent.

	*  Gov. Butch Otter and the Legislature made those unprecedented  cuts after 
spending most of the state’s budget reserves. This was a  last-ditch move, not 
unlike depleting the savings account to keep up  with the mortgage.

Now, the state’s piggy banks are almost empty. So, the state needs to  cut its 
budgets to balance the books — or find an additional, ongoing  source of money.

	* What kind of a tax increase? Consider this, just for the sake of  context. 
Idaho’s current 6 percent sales tax is expected to generate  $976.5 million this 
year. Idaho could tack another 2 cents onto the  sales tax, and still fall short 
of erasing its shortfall.

	*  Idahoans didn’t rule out tax increases. The Moore Information  survey found 
71 percent support for increasing “sin” taxes on alcohol  and tobacco. But these 
tax increases wouldn’t fill much of a $340  million hole. Especially if the 
money is applied to preventive programs;  83 percent of respondents favored 
using new tobacco taxes for Medicaid,  or programs that help tobacco users or 
combat teenage tobacco use.  Worthy programs, of course — but dollars that go 
into these programs are  unavailable for education, which accounts for nearly 
two-thirds of the  state’s general fund budget.
Idaho’s fiscal crisis is worse than many Idahoans seem to think. That’s  the 
only conclusion we can derive from the Moore Information survey  conducted Oct. 
17-18, barely two weeks before Election Day. Idahoans  spoke loud and clear. 
Don’t cut education and Medicaid. Don’t raise  sales or income taxes.

But that’s unrealistic.

It’s quite possible, by the end of the 2011 session, that lawmakers will  cobble 
together some combination of budget cuts and tax increases.  Schools and state 
agencies probably can’t absorb a $340 million budget  cut. The state’s sluggish 
economy cannot sustain a $340 million tax  increase.

The way the state — and its elected officials — choose to reconcile  these 
severe budget realities will directly affect schoolkids,  businesses and 
taxpayers for 2011 and beyond. Every legislative session  is important. This 
next one will be crucial. Defining. Pivotal. And no,  those aren’t 
overstatements.

If Idahoans don’t get informed and involved in the discussion — starting  now, 
in the seven weeks before the 2011 Legislature convenes — they  won’t have much 
room to second-guess the outcomes. At this point,  lawmakers are left to 
interpret the people’s mixed message as best as  they can. Or, looking at it 
more cynically, lawmakers are free to pick  and choose the talking point that 
fits their preconceptions.

Yes, Idahoans, it is time to engage. The first step in engagement is  
understanding the problem, in all its harsh detail. In that regard,  there’s a 
lot of work to do.

“Our View” is the editorial position of the Idaho Statesman. It is an  unsigned 
opinion expressing the consensus of the Statesman’s editorial  board. To comment 
on an editorial or suggest a topic, e-mail  editorial at idahostatesman.com.



      
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