[Vision2020] Arctic Sea Ice "An Icy Retreat, " Dirk Notz, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

Wed Jul 28 13:29:59 PDT 2010

Anthony Watt's page (I keep trying to call him Andrew Watts, for some reason) is 
just a collection of linked graphic images, it won't actually hurt you.  Here 
are some of the pages that the graphics were taken from, so you don't have to 
stain your soul:

IARC-JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent data
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

National Snow and Ice Data Center Sea Ice Index:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

GMES AMSR-E Sea Ice Maps and Sea Ice Extent Time Series (arctic and antarctic):
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/

Arctic ROOS Daily Updated Time series of Artic sea ice:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice

The Cryosphere Today
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

DMI Center for Ocean and Ice Daily Mean Temperature Data:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

DMI Center for Ocean and Ice Satellite Products:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

North Pole Environmental Observatory
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/

NOAA Arctic Theme Page
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

These should get you by.  I make it part of my daily ritual to check how the 
arctic sea ice is doing, among other things, and to check out the web cam at the 
north pole.

Paul

________________________________
From: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
To: Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com>
Cc: Moscow Vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
Sent: Wed, July 28, 2010 11:05:21 AM
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Arctic Sea Ice "An Icy Retreat, " Dirk Notz,  
Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

I don't waste my time with "Watts Up With That's" pseudo-scientific bias, unless 
to point out scientific errors promoted by Anthony Watts. There is far too much 
credible climate science from professional climate scientists to consume my 
limited time...

Actually, given the science behind measuring Arctic sea ice thickness and/or 
volume, some of which has already been posted to Vision2020, I thought Notz 
somewhat misstated the science regarding current ability to make estimations of 
sea ice volume, as is indicated from the climate science references given lower 
down in this post.

But regardless, from my reading of his text, to paraphrase, he stated that we 
know there is considerably more thin Arctic sea ice than in previous decades, 
which can melt and reform quickly, therefore more extreme seasonal changes in 
the sea ice extent are possible, as water and ice conditions respond to cold or 
warm temperatures, and other variables (wind, ocean currents).  However, to make 
an accurate estimate of total ice volume requires more precise measurements (my 
wording), which apparently will be possible with the new satellite Cryosat 2 
Notz mentioned.

From the following Vision2020 post, science is presented on the 
skepticalscience.com website given, that indicates estimations of Arctic sea ice 
volume; the graph from Polar Ice Center, for example:

http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-June/070583.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Has-Arctic-sea-ice-returned-to-normal.html

Quote below from website immediately above:
Sea ice extent gives us a reasonable indication of the amount of Arctic sea ice 
but does have its limitations. Extent tells us about the state of the sea ice at 
the ocean's surface, not what's happening below. A better metric for the total 
amount of sea ice is, well, the actual total amount of sea ice, measured by sea 
ice volume. Satellite radar altimetry (Giles 2008) and satellite laser altimetry 
(Kwok 2009) find that Arctic sea ice has been thinning, even in 2008 and 2009 
when sea ice extent showed a slight recovery from the 2007 minimum. So while 
some claimed Arctic sea ice was recovering after 2007, the total volume of 
Arctic Sea ice through 2008 and 2009 were the lowest on record (Maslowski 2010, 
Tschudi 2010). 

----------------------------
More scientific information on measuring Arctic sea ice thickness was presented 
in the following Vision2020 post:
http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2010-June/070680.html

Quoting the Vision2020 post above:

In fact, satellites can provide data important in measuring Arctic sea ice
thickness, which is revealed in the following article, unless I
misunderstand (some of the scientific terminology used I do not understand),
which discusses data from ICEsat and GRACE satellites, and "ice thickness
calculations":

http://www.csr.utexas.edu/grace/GSTM/b4.html

*Session: B.4.a - Theme: GRACE & the Arctic*
*Title: Average and interannual dynamic topography from altimetry and the
GRACE mean geoid *
*First Author*: Ron Kwok
*Presenter*: Ron Kwok
*Co-Authors*: J. Morison

*Abstract*: We present our first estimates of the dynamic topography of the
Arctic Ocean derived from ICESat and EGM2008. EGM2008 has benefited from the
latest GRACE based satellite-only solutions, but is mixed with altimetric
estimates to the best of our knowledge. In ICESat processing, we retrieve
the ice and sea surface heights (ISH, SSH) by separating the elevation
returns from Arctic sea ice and open water. Differencing the ISH with the
local SSH gives the sea ice freeboard used in ice thickness calculations.
The sparsely sampled SSHs within the ice cover are used to estimate dynamic
topography – less than a few percent of the area of ice cover is open water.
An accurate geoid is clearly useful in minimizing the uncertainties in our
derived quantities at all length scales. We show the contributions of GRACE
data in improving the Arctic Gravity Project geoid (ArcGP-geoid) - what
looks to be long wavelength anomalies across the Arctic Basin are not longer
present. The resulting dynamic topography shows the expected relief but the
interpretation of the fields of interannual variability remains. There are
residuals in the field that may be due to uncertainties in EGM2008.
------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

On 7/26/10, Paul Rumelhart <godshatter at yahoo.com> wrote: 

>Why does he state that Arctic sea ice has become very thin while also stating 
>that they haven't been able to measure sea ice thickness reliably in the past?
>
>Andrew Watts has a page up that shows many different graphs relating to sea ice 
>in the arctic and antarctic: http://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-ice-page/
>
>Despite your misgivings about his blog, you'll find the graphs (which are 
>updated when the source graphs update) to be worth watching.  There is even a 
>web cam at the North Pole he links to.
>
>Paul
>
>Ted Moffett wrote:
>
>http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/07/an-icy-retreat/#more-4469
>>
>>
>>     An icy retreat
>>
>>
>>     26 July 2010 -
>>
>>Guest Commentary by Dirk Notz, MPI Hamburg 
>><http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/mitarbeiter/dirk-notz/>
>>
>>*Dirk Notz* is head of the research group “Sea ice in the Earth System” at the 
>>Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg.
>>
>>It’s almost routine by now: Every summer, many of those interested in climate 
>>change check again and again the latest data on sea-ice evolution in the Arctic. 
>>Such data are for example available on a daily basis from the US National Snow 
>>and Ice Data Center <http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/>. And again and again in 
>>early summer the question arises whether the most recent trend in sea-ice extent 
>>might lead to a new record minimum, with a sea-ice cover that will be smaller 
>>than that in the record summer of 2007.
>>
>>However, before looking at the possible future evolution of Arctic sea ice in 
>>more detail, it might be a good idea to briefly re-capitulate some events of the 
>>previous winter, because some of those are quite relevant for the current state 
>>of the sea-ice cover. The winter 2009/2010 will be remembered by many people in 
>>Europe (and not only there) as particularly cold, with lots of snow and ice. Not 
>>least because of the sustained cold, some began to wonder if global warming 
>>indeed was real.
>>
>>Such questioning of global warming based on a regional cold period of course 
>>neglects the crucial difference between weather and climate, with the former 
>>being the only thing that we as individuals will ever be able to experience 
>>first hand. A single regional cold spell has not a lot to do with climate – let 
>>alone with global climate. This becomes quite obvious if one instead considers 
>>the mean temperature of the entire globe during the last 12 months: this period 
>>was, according to the GISS data, the warmest 12-month period since the beginning 
>>of the records 130 years ago. Regarding sea ice, it was particularly important 
>>that temperatures in parts of the Arctic were well above average for most of the 
>>winter. This was directly experienced by some members of our working group 
>>during a field experiment at the West Coast of Greenland.
>>
>>The initial plan of this field experiment was to study the growth and decay of 
>>sea ice in great detail throughout an entire winter. In particular, we wanted to 
>>focus on the evolution of very young sea ice that had just formed from open 
>>water. Therefore, we wanted to start our measurements just before initial ice 
>>formation, which usually takes place in mid-November, at least according to past 
>>experience of the local Greenlandic population. Hence, we traveled to our 
>>measuring site close to the Greenlandic settlement of Upernavik in early 
>>November to put out our measuring buoys. We were hoping that ice formation would 
>>start shortly after we had put out the instruments such that they were protected 
>>from storms and waves. However, with temperatures that were often more than 10°C 
>>above the long-term mean, sea ice was nowhere to be seen. Even in January, there 
>>were days on end with above 0°C temperature and heavy rain fall. Finally, in 
>>February a stable ice cover formed, which of course remained relatively thin and 
>>which hence had melted completely by mid May.
>>
>>The fact that it was sometimes warmer at our measurement site at the West Coast 
>>of Greenland than it was in Central Europe at the same time surprised us quite a 
>>bit. However, some recent studies indicate that such a distribution of 
>>relatively high temperature in parts of the Arctic and relatively low 
>>temperature in Northern and Central Europe and parts of the US might become 
>>somewhat more wide-spread in the future. While the Arctic has always shown large 
>>internal variability that lead to large-scale shifts in weather patterns, in the 
>>future the ongoing retreat of Arctic sea ice might cause those weather patterns 
>>to occur more often that allow for Northerly winds to bring cold air from the 
>>Arctic to the mid-latitudes. Hence, it is quite possible that because of the 
>>retreat of Arctic sea ice, some smaller parts of the Northern Hemisphere will 
>>experience pronounced cold spells during winter every now and then. The mean 
>>temperature of the Northern Hemisphere will nevertheless increase further, and 
>>the export of cold air from the Arctic of course leads to warm anomalies there.
>>
>>But let’s return to the evolution of Arctic sea ice. Because of relatively high 
>>temperatures, Arctic sea-ice extent remained well below the long-term mean for 
>>most of the preceding winter. However, in March temperatures suddenly dropped 
>>for a couple of weeks, in particular in parts of the Barents Sea and in parts of 
>>the Beaufort Sea. This in turn lead to the formation of a thin ice cover in 
>>these regions, which caused a marked increase in observed sea-ice extent. For 
>>the measurement of this extent, it doesn’t matter at all how thick the ice is: 
>>any ice, however thin, contributes to sea-ice extent. Therefore, only 
>>considering a possible “recovery” of just the /extent /of Arctic sea ice always 
>>remains somewhat superficial, since sea-ice extent contains no information on 
>>the thickness of the ice. A much more useful measure for the state of Arctic sea 
>>ice is therefore the total sea-ice volume. However, for its estimation one 
>>additionally requires information on the overall distribution of ice thickness, 
>>which we have not been able to measure routinely in the past. While this will 
>>hopefully change in the future because of the successful launch of the Cryosat 2 
>>satellite a couple of weeks ago, at the moment we unfortunately must rely on 
>>judging the current state of the Arctic sea-ice cover mostly by its extent.
>>
>>Because of the very low thickness of much of the Arctic sea ice, it wasn’t too 
>>surprising that at the end of the winter, sea-ice extent decreased rapidly. This 
>>rapid loss lead up to the lowest June sea-ice extent 
>><http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2010/070610.html>since the beginning of 
>>reliable observations. After this rapid loss of the very thin ice that had 
>>formed late in winter, the retreat slowed down substantially but the ice extent 
>>remained well below the long-term mean. Currently, the ice covers an area that 
>>is slightly larger than the extent in late July of the record year 2007. 
>>However, this does not really allow for any reliable projections regarding the 
>>future evolution of Arctic sea ice in the weeks to come.
>>
>>The reason for this is mostly that sea ice in the Arctic has become very thin. 
>>Hence, in contrast to the much thicker ice of past decades, the ice now reacts 
>>very quickly and very sensitively to the weather patterns 
>><http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2010/072010.html> that are predominant during 
>>a certain summer. This currently limits the predictability of sea-ice extent 
>>significantly. For example, in 2007 a relatively stable high-pressure system 
>>formed above the Beaufort sea, towards the north of North America, leading to 
>>rapid melting of sea ice there. If again such stable high pressure system forms 
>>in the Arctic throughout the coming weeks, we might well experience a sea-ice 
>>minimum that is below the record minimum as observed in 2007. However, if the 
>>summer should turn out to be colder than during the previous years, a sea-ice 
>>minimum similar to that observed in 2009 would not be too surprising. Hence, at 
>>the moment all that remains is to wait – and to check again and again the latest 
>>data of Arctic sea-ice extent.
>>
>>--------------------------------------------------------
>>
>>Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>>
>>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
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