[Vision2020] Climate Science "Groundhog Day" Re: Deep Solar Minimum 2008-09: Lowest Since 1913: March 2010 Global Temperature Set New High
Paul Rumelhart
godshatter at yahoo.com
Sat Apr 24 20:11:58 PDT 2010
Ted Moffett wrote:
> On 4/23/10, *Paul Rumelhart* <godshatter at yahoo.com
> <mailto:godshatter at yahoo.com>> wrote:
>
>
> The global climate is a chaotic system that is affected by
> multiple inputs, some cyclical in nature, some more-or-less
> random. One such cycle is the sunspot cycle, which has lately
> stalled again and is on it's 8th day in a row of spotless sun
> days. We know so little about the system in general that it's hard
> to say what kind of a lag would be apparent or how long of a solar
> minimum would need to change x numbers of degrees in global mean
> temperature.
>
>
> Another climate science "Groundhog Day" post...
>
> You are not addressing what is perhaps the primary point of my post.
> Many of the skeptics of anthropogenic warming (such as Moscow's New
> Saint Andrews Ed Iverson, who has written in the Moscow/Pullman Daily
> News that solar forcing can explain recent climate changes, such as
> Arctic sea ice decline) have for years been claiming the increases in
> solar irradiance are a significant variable to explain the global
> temperature increases of recent decades. They are not claiming that
> we don't know enough to say what impact solar forcing has on climate,
> rather they are making a claim that it has been changing global
> climate. Yet solar irradiance has decreased in recent years, during
> the 2008-09 deep solar minimum, while, as my post indicates, March
> 2010 set a record for global warmth.
I don't speak for the global climate skeptic community. If you have a
beef with something one of them has said, take it up with them. At one
time, I thought the sunspot cycle would have a larger effect that it
seems to have had.
>
> The "we" you refer to apparently does not include some of the world's
> most knowledgeable climate scientists, who have analysed the solar
> forcing impacts of sunspot cycles, and changes in solar irradiance, in
> the last 30 years, using satellite data, to determine the probable
> global temperate variations both from an extended solar minimum (the
> recent solar minimum, if it continued, like the Maunder Minimum of
> 1645-1715 with its alleged links to the Little Ice Age), and whether
> there is evidence the past 30 years of global temperature increases
> are linked significantly to increases in solar irradiance.
>
> Read pages 11-14, the analysis "Temperature and Solar Data," by NASA's
> climate scientist James Hansen, Director of the Goddard Institute for
> Space Studies, at the following website. Data and theory are
> presented that contradict your claims of incredible uncertainty about
> the temperature impacts of the recent extended solar minimum:
> http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf
> <http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf>
The pdf you linked to says that a signal resulting from the sunspot
cycle is noticeable, but small. It's probably one of many such cycles
affecting climate. I don't know what others might have said, but I
don't find it odd that the climate is affected by a great many things.
It's almost the poster boy for chaos. In fact, if I remember correctly,
chaos theory itself came out of observations of odd mathematical
structures arising psuedo-randomly out of weather data.
> Paul Rumelhart wrote:
>
> Anyway, all it takes is a 1% or 2% change in albedo, or a small
> change in cloud cover for the game to change completely, which is
> something that we can't model realistically. We'll just have to
> see how this pans out over the next few years.
>
> That's one of the reasons I'm so skeptical that our CO2 footprint
> is going to cause massive global damage if we don't do something
> RIGHT NOW. It's almost impossible to isolate that one variable
> amongst the chaos that it's pointless to be worried about it until
> it's a bit more obvious that the world is going to hell in a hand
> basket.
>
>
> It is not "almost impossible" to isolate that one variable
> (atmospheric CO2 level) to make probable scientific predictions of
> climate impacts, including albedo and clouds. If it were almost
> impossible, then thousands of climate scientists have been
> wasting their time. For over a century they have been in detail using
> data and theory to predict the increases in global average
> temperatures if atmospheric CO2 levels were to double, what has come
> to be known as "climate sensitivity." And the physics regarding CO2's
> influence on trapping solar energy is well understood. The skepticism
> on this issue is rather incredible. High school science experiments
> verify that CO2 traps solar energy! And the saturation problem has
> been explored in detail, regarding how CO2 operates in Earth's
> atmosphere, as this discussion from the American Institute of Physics
> indicates: Basic Radiation Calculations:
> http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Radmath.htm
The amount of forcing for a doubling of CO2 from preindustrial levels
without feedbacks usingis in the range of 1C to 1.2C. Anything else
requires positive feedback. I hate to cast aspersions upon the climate
science community, but they don't even know if the feedbacks they know
about have a net negative or net positive effect on climate as
temperature rises. It's too hard to model cloud cover to any reasonable
degree at this time. Nevertheless, their models assume a positive
feedback of various amounts, which is why they give the range from 1.1C
to 5.2C or so. Not one of them that I've ever seen assumes negative
feedbacks.
If the feedbacks are negative, then we will see at most a 1.2C global
increase in mean temperature.
The estimates in the tables below range from 0.1C to 9C. If we assume
that they are zeroing in on the right range, then the best we can say is
that it will be between 0.75C and 4.5C, as that is the range post-2000.
That's quite a range for the answer to what might be the most
significant question in climate science today.
Paul
> ---------------
> Below read the following extensive body of research (minus the graphs
> Levenson constructed, which are worth considering), going back over a
> century, on climate sensitivity, that is fundamental to discussions of
> how certain or uncertain are the impacts of human sourced CO2
> emissions. Note that none of these studies show a temperature
> decrease from doubling atmospheric CO2, a result it would seem some
> studies would show, if the climate system were as chaotic as some of
> the skeptics of anthropogenic warming claim.
>
> This huge body of research clearly sides with the claim of enough
> scientific probability of profound temperature changes from a doubling
> of atmospheric CO2, that not taking immediate action to lower human
> CO2 emissions is playing Russian Roulette with the future of our planet.
>
> It will take decades of concerted effort and technological innovation
> and deployment, even assuming highly improbable international public
> and political agreement, for CO2 emissions to be lowered
> dramatically. Delaying action only increases the probability
> increasing CO2 levels will trigger climate feedbacks that will be
> damaging and/or difficult to stop, such as albedo decreases from ice
> loss, methane hydrate breakdown increasing methane releases, carbon
> sink reversal from increasing ocean temperatures (which will cause
> atmospheric CO2 levels to increase faster with lower ocean carbon sink
> capacity), damaging ocean acidification, increasing desertification or
> loss of tropical forests, increases in ocean level, flooding coastal
> areas, and rates of species extinction, the last two impacts NASA's
> climate scientist James Hansen lists as the two most important reasons
> to address anthropogenic climate warming:
>
> http://bartonpaullevenson.com/ClimateSensitivity.html
>
>
> Estimates of Climate Sensitivity
>
> (c) 2006 by Barton Paul Levenson
> The "climate sensitivity" is an estimate of how much some factor in a
> regional or global climate would change with a specific change in some
> factor affecting it. That's pretty vague, of course. In practice, the
> term has recently come to mean the change in Earth's surface
> temperature that could be expected if the ambient level of carbon
> dioxide were doubled (usually from the preindustrial level of 280
> parts per million by volume to 560 ppmv, but sometimes from 300 to
> 600). Below are all the estimates I could find in the literature.
>
> Not all estimates are equal. Most of these, though not all, include
> the effects of climate feedbacks such as water vapor. And these
> estimates include ones which were later shown to be based on flawed
> models, erroneous reasoning or outright mistakes. Examples would be
> Möller's estimate of 1963, which didn't treat a column of atmosphere
> correctly, or Idso's estimate of 1980, which, as Schneider and others
> pointed out, is based on reasoning that would violate the conservation
> of energy. Proceed with caution. Your mileage may vary.
>
> Study Year Estimate (° K.)
> Arrhenius 1896 5.5
> Hulbert 1931 4.0
> Callendar 1938 2.0
> Plass 1956 3.8
> Möller 1963 9.6
> Manabe and Wetherald 1967 2.36
> Manabe 1971 1.9
> Rasool and Schneider 1971 0.8
> Sellers 1973 0.1
> Sellers 1974 1.32
> Weare and Snell 1974 0.7
> Manabe 1975 2.3
> Manabe and Wetherald 1975 2.93
> Ramanathan 1975 1.5
> Temkin and Snell 1976 1.7
> Augustsson and Ramanathan 1977 1.9
> Ohring and Adler 1978 0.78
> Manabe and Stouffer 1979 4.0
> Manabe and Wetherald 1980 3.0
> Idso 1980 0.26
> Ramanathan 1981 2.25
> Chou et al. 1982 2.29
> Hall and Cacuci 1982 2.42
> Nicoli and Visconti 1982 2.30
> Gilliland and Schneider 1984 1.6
> Hansen et al. 1984 4.2
> Washington and Meehl 1984 3.5
> Wetherald and Manabe 1986 4.0
> Wilson and Mitchell 1987 5.2
> Mitchell et al. 1989 3.5
> Noda and Tokoika 1989 4.3
> Schlesinger et al. 1989 4.3
> Washington and Meehl 1989 4.0
> Wetherald and Manabe 1989 4.0
> Oglesby and Saltzman 1990 4.0
> McAvaney et al. 1991 2.1
> Boer et al. 1992 3.5
> Hoffert and Covey 1992 2.3
> Mahfouf et al. 1993 1.4
> Manabe and Stouffer 1993 3.5
> Lambert 1995 3.5
> Thompson and Pollard 1995 2.1
> Chen and Ramaswamy 1996 2.5
> Gordon and O'Farrell 1997 4.3
> Hegerl et al. 1997 3.2
> MacKay et al. 1997 2.6
> Schlesinger et al. 1997 3.378
> Bertrand 1998 2.5
> Delworth et al. 1999 3.4
> Roeckner et al. 1999 2.6
> Wolbarst 1999 1.28
> Boer et al. 2000 3.5
> Washington et al. 2000 2.1
> Dai et al. 2001 2.1
> Wetherald et al. 2001 4.5
> Boer and Yu 2003 3.50
> Shaviv and Veizer 2003 0.75
> Stern 2005 4.4
> Sumi 2005 2.8
> Goosse et al. 2006 1.8
> Hegerl et al. 2006 2.5
>
>
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>
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>
> The following table shows the climate sensitivity of various global
> climate models. Some of these references duplicate some of those above.
>
> Model Study Estimate (° K.)
> AGCM/MLO Schlesinger et al. 1997 3.378
> BMRC AGCM McAvaney et al. 1991 2.1
> CCC GCMII Lambert 1995 3.5
> CCCma MLOM Boer and Yu 2003 3.50
> CCCma FDOM Boer and Yu 2003 3.50
> CCM Washington and Meehl 1984 3.5
> CGCM1 Boer et al. 2000 3.5
> CM2.0 Stouffer et al. 2005 2.9
> CM2.1 Stouffer et al. 2005 3.4
> CSIRO-Mk2 Gordon and O'Farrell 1997 4.3
> ECBILT-CLIO-VECODE Goosse et al. 2006 1.8
> ECHAM3/LSG Hegerl et al. 1997 3.2
> ECHAM4/OPYC3 Roeckner et al. 1999 2.6
> GENESIS 1.02 Thompson and Pollard 1995 2.1
> GFDL_R30 Delworth et al. 2001 3.4
> GISS Hansen et al. 1984 4.2
> LMD4CO Le Treu et al. 1994 3.9
> LMD4MO Le Treu et al. 1994 3.6
> MRI CGCM2.0 Yukimoto and Noda 2002 1.1
> MRI CGCM2.2 Yukimoto and Noda 2002 1.8
> OSU Schlesinger et al. 1989 4.3
> PCM Washington et al. 2000 2.1
> UKMO Wilson and Mitchell 1987 5.2
> UKMO HadCM2 Hulme et al. 1999 2.5
> UKMO HadCM3 Hulme et al. 1999 3.3
>
>
> Citations for studies listing multiple models:
>
> Boer George G. and Yu Bin 2003. "Dynamical aspects of climate
> sensitivity" Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(3), 35-1 - 35-4.
>
> Hulme Mike, Mitchell John, Ingram William, Lowe Jason, Johns Tim, mark
> New, Viner David 1999. "Climate Change Scenarios for Global Impact
> Studies." Submitted to Global Environmental Change.
>
> Le Treu H., Li Z. X., Forichon M. 1994. "Sensitivity of the LMD
> General Circulation Model to Greenhouse Forcing Associated with Two
> Different Cloud Water Parameterizations." J. Climate 7, 1827-1841.
>
> R. J. Stouffer, A. J. Broccoli, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, R.
> Gudgel, I. Held, R. Hemler, T. Knutson, Hyun-Chul Lee, M. D.
> Schwarzkopf, B. Soden, M. J. Spelman, M. Winton, Fanrong Zeng 2005.
> "GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate
> Response." J Clim. Special Section 19, 723-740
>
> Yukimoto Seiji, Noda Akira 2002. "Improvements of the Meteorological
> Research Institute Global Ocean-atmosphere Coupled GCM (MRI-CGCM2) and
> its Climate Sensitivity." CGer's Supercomputer Activity Report 10,
> 37-44. NIES.
>
> Some acronyms:
>
> Abbreviation Meaning
> AGCM Atmospheric General Circulation Model
> CCC Canadian Climate Centre
> CCM Community Climate Model
> CGCM Coupled Global Climate Model
> CM Climate Model
> CO Control version (for LMD GCM)
> CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
> ECHAM European Center HAMburg global climate model
> GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Princeton NJ, associated
> with NOAA (qv))
> GISS Goddard Institute for Space Studies
> LMD Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique
> MLO Mixed Layer Ocean
> MO Modified version (for LMD GCM)
> NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research (Boulder CO)
> NOAA National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration
> OSU Oregon State University
> PCM Parallel Climate Model
>
>
>
>
> Ted Moffett wrote:
>
> It requires going back to 1913 to find a lower solar minimum
> during the past century than the minimum of 2008-09. As
> global average temperatures in March 2010 (very low sunspot
> activity continues in 2010, though new solar cycle 24 is under
> way: http://solarb.msfc.nasa.gov/ ,
> http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml ) set a new
> March monthly record for intensity, the climate science
> speculators/skeptics of anthropogenic warming, who have been
> pushing the solar forcing theory for contemporary increases in
> global temperatures, might consider recanting their position
> (no misleading and/or "cooked" data graphs regarding
> contemporary temperature and solar activity presented here):
>
>
> NOAA: Global Temps Push Last Month to Hottest March on Record
>
> http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100415_marchstats.html
> -------------------
> http://www.appinsys.com/NASASolar.htm --------------------------
> A theory regarding the cause of the unusually deep solar
> minimum of 2008-09 is presented below, from "Science" journal
> March 12, 2010:
>
>
> NASA - Solar 'Current of Fire' Speeds Up
>
> http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/12mar_conveyorbelt/
>
> -------------------
>
> http://sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/327/5971/1350
>
> /Science/ 12 March 2010:
> Vol. 327. no. 5971, pp. 1350 - 1352
> DOI: 10.1126/science.1181990
>
>
>
>
> Variations in the Sun’s Meridional Flow over a Solar Cycle
>
> *David H. Hathaway^1 ^,* and Lisa Rightmire^2 *
>
> The Sun’s meridional flow is an axisymmetric flow that^ is
> generally directed from its equator toward its poles at the^
> surface. The structure and strength of the meridional flow
> determine^ both the strength of the Sun’s polar magnetic field
> and^ the intensity of sunspot cycles. We determine the
> meridional^ flow speed of magnetic features on the Sun using
> data from the^ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. The average
> flow is poleward^ at all latitudes up to 75°, which suggests
> that it extends^ to the poles. It was faster at sunspot cycle
> minimum than at^ maximum and substantially faster on the
> approach to the current^ minimum than it was at the last solar
> minimum. This result may^ help to explain why this solar
> activity minimum is so peculiar.^
>
> ------------------------------------------
>
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
>
>
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