[Vision2020] Extreme Heat: Northwest to Southeast Alaska: Was: El Nino (ENSO) Announced July 9: Northwest Climate Shift

[Ted Moffett]

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Clark&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Clark/archives/2009/07/extreme_heat_from_the_northwest_to_southeast_alaska.asp

>From website above:

I am back from a really wonderful vacation where I cruised through the
Inside Passage of Alaska for seven days. It's my second trip to this area
and I am always in awe of the beauty. It was typically cool and cloudy for
most of the trip, except the last day when we stopped in Victoria, B.C.

One of the reasons I mention this is to contrast the weather I experienced
to the weather this week from southeastern Alaska south through western
Washington and Oregon. A large dome of unseasonably hot air is building and
dominates the weather at least the next few days. Record high temperatures
are likely to fall in many places, especially in the Pacific Northwest,
where temperatures will easily climb to as high as 104 to 109 Tuesday and
Wednesday in the hottest places. Even in typically cool and cloudy
southeastern Alaska, places like Juneau and Ketchikan will break 80 with
some places just inland rising well into the 80s. Vancouver, B.C., will be
near 90 and certainly areas just inland will be above 90.

The temperatures in southeastern Alaska do not look that hot to the casual
observer. However, the average high this time of year is only the middle 60s
and last week it was in the upper 50s. With temperatures rising well into
the 70s and 80s, streams and rivers will likely see rapid rises and fast
flows due to the rapid melting of still existing snow in the higher
mountains and also from glacier melt.

The heat in the Pacific Northwest will be at dangerous levels since air
conditioning is no common in many houses. It will also be hot in the
interior Northwest, but in these areas, temperatures will not be nearly as
far above average as coastal areas will be.

Here are some expected high temperatures through Thursday for select cities.


 ------------------------------------------
Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett

On 7/16/09, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>  El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10
>
> July 9, 2009
>
> NOAA scientists today announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate
> phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions
> and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern
> tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and
> typically lasts about 12 months.
>
> http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html
> ----------------
> My comment:
>
> This may result in next winter being drier than the past few winters for
> the Northwest US.  As temperatures are predicted to hit the upper 90s F. the
> next few days in Moscow, this news may be unseasonal; but the arrival of an
> El Nino event is significant if you worry about plans for the snow removal
> budget in North Idaho.  Also, El Nino may have more immediate effects on US
> weather in other areas, and of course globally. Caps as appearing on NOAA
> website below (no intent to yell):
>
> http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html
>
> SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#ssts>IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE NOW WELL ABOVE
> NORMAL AND CPC<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#cpc>HAS DECLARED AN EL
> NINO<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el+nino>IN EFFECT. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 200 METERS
> OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, MAKING IT LIKELY THAT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#ssts>WILL CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF SUMMER, FALL AND WINTER. THE CFS MODEL
> CORRECTLY ANTICIPATED THIS RAPID TRANSITION IN ITS FORECASTS FOR THE LAST
> FEW MONTHS, AND ITS CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SST<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#sst>
> ANOMALIES<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#anomalies>APPROACHING 2 KELVIN IN THE COMING FEW MONTHS, SUGGESTING THAT MODERATE EL
> NINO<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el+nino>CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.
> -----------------
>
> THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR ASO 2009 CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF
> ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM ARIZONA TO FLORIDA. ABOVE
> NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCES FOR BELOW
> NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED IN THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS. ELSEWHERE,
> EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED.
> ----------------
>
> A TREND<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#trend>-RELATED
> DRY FORECAST IS
> INDICATED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
> ----------------
> BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
> FAVORED IN EL NINO<http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/seasglossary.html#el+nino>WINTERS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
> VALLEYS.
> ------------------------------------------
> Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/attachments/20090728/5a4abd48/attachment-0001.html