[Vision2020] Vision2020 Digest, Vol 34, Issue 58

Wed Apr 8 18:54:33 PDT 2009

I would have to research this issue to attempt an answer.  I am not sure of
the albedo of the areas you describe that might be covered with solar
panels, nor what the albedo of large areas of solar panels is in
comparison.

There are proposals to block solar energy via huge numbers of micro-mirrors
in space or sulfur compounds injected into the upper atmosphere, to mimic
the cooling effects of volcanoes.  If the Earth had numerous volcanoes, or a
one or two very powerful ones, exploding, this would cool the climate
temporarily.  If a large asteroid hits, which currently is beyond human
technology to stop, though in the future humans may have space technology
waiting to deflect them, we will have global warming that is unimaginable at
first (or so some experts say due to heated debris that would spread over
the globe from the explosive impact), then a global winter due to sunlight
being blocked.  Don't worry, be happy!  "Dust in the wind..." as the
Kansas song goes...

As to the methane hydrate in permafrost, also in areas in the oceans and
some lakes, that warming could destabilize, if the process of methane
releases from these deposits accelerates in a feedback mechanism due to a
warming climate... Let's not go there.  Consider that methane hydrates
contain double or more of the carbon contained in all traditional fossil
fuels: oil, coal, natural gas.  There are efforts to exploit methane
hydrates as an energy source, which is potentially huge.

One of the primary theories as to a main cause of the Paleocene-Eocene
Thermal Maximum, about 55-56 million years ago, when temperatures in the
oceans and the atmosphere were up to 8 degrees C. warmer than now, and there
were no polar ice caps, is a methane pulse from methane hydrate releases.
You can read about this at the website below, though I found errors in the
text compared to the graphs.  Note the first graph shows an increase in
methane to about 16000 ppbv, while the text claims the graph shows an
increase to 1600 ppvb.  An error in editing, I suppose?  Or do I have this
wrong?

http://www.falw.vu/~renh/methane-pulse.html

Ted Moffett

On 4/7/09, donald edwards <donaledwards at hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Ted, would you be in a position to ponder a guess as to what effect at
> countering the lost reflective properties of the melted ice by covering half
> the states of Nevada, Utah, Arizona and California in reflective solar
> panels would have; besides the obvious power gains.
>
> I mean, would it make a difference in stopping the current melting by
> reflecting more heat back into space than is possible without any ice to
> mirror it off rather than the current system of accelerated melting by cause
> and effect?  Wouldn't this also help avoid the already started cotastrophe
> of the melting permafrost releasing methane?
>
> Just wondered about this before.  Thanks,
>
> Don
>
>
>
>
>
> > From: vision2020-request at moscow.com
> > Subject: Vision2020 Digest, Vol 34, Issue 58
> > To: vision2020 at moscow.com
> > Date: Tue, 7 Apr 2009 11:47:41 -0700
> >
> > Send Vision2020 mailing list submissions to
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> > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific
> > than "Re: Contents of Vision2020 digest..."
> >
> >
> > Today's Topics:
> >
> > 1. Re: Six gay men shot to death in Iraq (Tom Hansen)
> > 2. Vermont Legalizes Gay Marriage (Donovan Arnold)
> > 3. Re: Polar Amplification Predicted by Early Climate Modeling
> > Programs: Now Well Verified (Ted Moffett)
> > 4. Geophysical Research Letters, 4/3/09: Ice-Free Arctic Summers
> > Likely Sooner Than Expected (Ted Moffett)
> >
> >
> > ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 1
> > Date: Tue, 7 Apr 2009 18:25:22 GMT
> > From: Tom Hansen <thansen at moscow.com>
> > Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Six gay men shot to death in Iraq
> > To: Mo Hendrickson <hend5953 at vandals.uidaho.edu>,
> > <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com>, vision2020 at moscow.com
> > Message-ID: <200904071825.n37IPP6v009135 at mail-gw.fsr.net>
> >
> > Mo Hendrickson stated:
> >
> > "I think your [Arnold] issue is not the use of Xian it is your dislike of
>
> > Ralph. But ultimatly, in your mind, you are always right and anyone who
> > disagrees is not being truthful."
> >
> > I think that you may be on to something there, Mo.
> >
> > >From Arnold:
> >
> > "And if Christ cannot make a positive image on these people, I won't
> waste
> > my time trying to impress them either."
> >
> > I'm guessing that when Arnold goes to church, he confuses the
> > congregation. They simply do not know who to pray to.
> >
> > Tom Hansen
> > Moscow, Idaho
> >
> > Join us at The First Annual Intolerista Wingding, April 17th, featuring
> > Roy Zimmerman and Jeanne McHale. For details go to . . .
> >
> > http://www.MoscowCares.com/Wingding<http://www.moscowcares.com/Wingding>
> >
> > Seeya
> > there.
> >
> > ---------------------------------------------
> > This message was sent by First Step Internet.
> > http://www.fsr.com/
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 2
> > Date: Tue, 7 Apr 2009 11:25:54 -0700 (PDT)
> > From: Donovan Arnold <donovanjarnold2005 at yahoo.com>
> > Subject: [Vision2020] Vermont Legalizes Gay Marriage
> > To: vision2020 at moscow.com
> > Message-ID: <749343.58700.qm at web38107.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
> >
> > Four down, 46 to go.
> > ?
> > ?
> > http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090407/ap_on_re_us/gay_marriage_vermont
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 3
> > Date: Tue, 7 Apr 2009 11:40:29 -0700
> > From: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
> > Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Polar Amplification Predicted by Early
> > Climate Modeling Programs: Now Well Verified
> > To: Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe at gmail.com>
> > Cc: vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
> > Message-ID:
> > <d03f69e0904071140v20d6dc47u9f52095725d122dd at mail.gmail.com>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252"
> >
> > What I thought you meant was that the science behind examining
> anthropogenic
> > global warming could *not conduct a "test" on the Earth's whole climate
> > system's response to human impacts, but could only examine single
> variables
> > ("some aspect of the theory")* responding or not to increases in
> atmospheric
> > CO2, and other human impacts.
> >
> > But the computer models that have been used since the 1970s to study the
> > potential consequences of human impacts on climate *attempt to model the
> > Earth's climate system as a whole,* to determine the effects of
> increasing
> > atmospheric CO2, and other variables. Thus the theory is being
> *scientifically
> > examined considering the simultaneous interactions of numerous variables
> in
> > the climate system,* as much as this is possible with a computer model.
> The
> > outcomes of the computer models might be considered a single virtual
> "test"
> > of the theory in total.
> >
> > One of the most striking predictions of the earlier computer models was
> the
> > rapid deterioration of the Arctic. While the observed decline in Arctic
> ice
> > cover and rapid increases in Arctic temperatures vindicates these earlier
> > computer models predicting human impacts on climate, *some critics have
> > emphasized that some of the computer models must be significantly in
> error,*
> > *because the decline in the Arctic has been occurring much faster than
> > predicted. *Maybe the computer models mathematical accuracy is in
> > question. Maybe other variables are not given due consideration. Some
> > argue solar variables. Recently in the media there was a lot of hype
> about
> > underwater volcanoes warming the Arctic.
> >
> > I also thought you might have meant that *repeatable and controlled*
> > *laboratory
> > (a cornerstone of much "hard" scientific research) tests* *on the Earth's
> > climate system as a whole, relating to anthropogenic warming, are
> > impossible,* given we would need numerous Earth's under controlled
> > conditions to experiment on, adding CO2 to the atmosphere to test the
> > outcome numerous times. A similar argument, I think, is used to criticize
> > the social sciences, given you cannot take entire societies and put them
> in
> > "test tubes" to conduct repeatable controlled experiments on the outcomes
> of
> > changing conditions. Some would argue that the social sciences are a
> "soft"
> > science due to this limitation, ditto for climate science. However, the
> > lead melting temperatures on Venus (900 F.) do offer an example of the
> > warming effects of atmospheric CO2 (Venus's atmosphere is about 96
> percent
> > CO2) on the climate of a planet.
> >
> > Computer models used in climate science are a means to virtually conduct
> > repeatable tests on the Earth's climate system's response to changing
> > variables. *Whether relying on computer models to accurately predict the
> > Earth's climate system in the future should be considered "hard" or
> "soft"
> > science can be debated, but the science behind anthropogenic warming also
> > relies on accurate paleoclimate data gathered by scientists,* that one of
> > the world's leading climate scientists, NASA's James Hansen, has pointed
> out
> > is more important than computer climate modeling. He states the Earth's
> > climate history is the most important basis for climate science:
> >
> > http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2008/20080804_TripReport.pdf
> >
> > http://solveclimate.com/blog/20080805/james-hansen-how-science-works
> >
> > James Hansen
> >
> > Our understanding of the Earth?s climate, in particular, depends foremost
> on
> > the Earth?s history: how past climate changed in response to changing
> > boundary conditions. I rate observations of ongoing climate change and
> > processes today, processes on the ice sheets, in the oceans, etc., as the
> > second most important source of knowledge about climate change. Climate
> > models rate only third, in my opinion. Models are a tool that helps us
> > understand the other two, i.e., climate history and on-going climate
> > phenomena. Models are a representation of reality, one that helps us
> combine
> > different factors, evaluate relative importance, and try to understand
> > interactions. As we make progress we add more processes to the models and
> > improve representations of others.
> > ------------------------------------------
> > Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
> >
> >
> > On 4/5/09, Joe Campbell <philosopher.joe at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > All I meant was that you couldn't do a single test on the thesis, not
> > > that it was unsupported by evidence.
> > >
> > > Joe Campbell
> > >
> > > On Apr 5, 2009, at 7:12 PM, Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Joe Campbell wrote:
> > >
> > > http://mailman.fsr.com/pipermail/vision2020/2009-April/062709.html
> > >
> > > It isn't as if you could test global warming anyway. Any tests would
> have
> > > to be done on
> > > some aspect of the theory and I imagine such tests are being done.
> > >
> > > Joe Campbell
> > >
> > > ---------------------
> > > Do you wish to retract your statement, given your rather puzzling
> assertion
> > > that "It isn't as if you could test global warming anyway." assuming
> > > you accept the validity of the scientific information presented below
> from
> > > NOAA on the scientific efforts regarding "testing" global warming
> theory,
> > > that have been ongoing for decades? There is a compelling reason that
> the
> > > IPCC issues definitive statements regarding the future impacts
> > > of anthropogenic climate change: The theory *has* *been tested* for
> decades.
> > > I am astonished that an academic of your standing would write such an
> > > irresponsible statement about one of the most important scientific
> issues of
> > > our time.
> > >
> > > Ted Moffett
> > > ---------------------
> > >
> > > NOAA 200th Top Tens: Breakthroughs: The First *Climate Model*<
> http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html
> >
> > >
> > > Testing the Notion of Global Warming
> > >
> > > Two scientists from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Drs.
> Syukuro
> > > Manabe and Kirk Bryan, published the model results in 1969. By the
> 1970s,
> > > general circulation models emerged as a central tool in climate
> research.
> > > Dr. Manabe and Mr. Dick Wetherald later used this original model to
> simulate
> > > the first three-dimensional experiment to test the notion of global
> > > warming. Their groundbreaking results were published in 1975.
> > > -------------------
> > >
> > > The First Climate Model
> > >
> > >
> > >
> http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/welcome.html
> > > --------------------
> > > [image: computing infrastructure that can hold 2,000 terabytes]<
> http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/GFDL_HPCC.html
> >
> > >
> > > To accommodate growth in the size of model outputs, NOAA has invested
> in a
> > > computing infrastructure that can hold 2,000 terabytes (or two million
> > > gigabytes) of data. With this capacity, scientists now have the ability
> to
> > > store global climate data on a weekly or even daily basis to
> investigate
> > > climate change.
> > > -------------------
> > > [image: Observed trends in surface air temperature from 1960-1990]<
> http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/breakthroughs/climate_model/Obstrends.html
> >
> > >
> > > Computer models have long predicted that the climate change will affect
> > > Arctic and subarctic regions earlier and more dramatically than other
> parts
> > > of the world. Recent studies show marked increases in temperature and
> many
> > > other climate variables across much of the far north. Observed trends
> in
> > > surface air temperature from 1960-1990 (shown above in degrees
> centigrade)
> > > demonstrate "polar amplification,? with largest temperature increases
> (shown
> > > in red and magenta) occurring near the North Pole.
> > >
> > > ------------------------------------------
> > >
> > > Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
> > >
> > >
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> > ------------------------------
> >
> > Message: 4
> > Date: Tue, 7 Apr 2009 11:47:42 -0700
> > From: Ted Moffett <starbliss at gmail.com>
> > Subject: [Vision2020] Geophysical Research Letters, 4/3/09: Ice-Free
> > Arctic Summers Likely Sooner Than Expected
> > To: vision 2020 <vision2020 at moscow.com>
> > Message-ID:
> > <d03f69e0904071147h6054b88bn7f7a1dca615966a6 at mail.gmail.com>
> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="windows-1252"
> >
> > Ice-Free Arctic Summers Likely Sooner Than Expected
> >
> > April 2, 2009
> >
> > http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090402_seaice.html
> > Summers in the Arctic may be ice-free in as few as 30 years, not at the
> end
> > of the century as previously expected. The updated forecast is the result
> of
> > a new analysis of computer models coupled with the most recent summer ice
> > measurements.
> >
> > ?The Arctic is changing faster than anticipated,? said James Overland, an
> > oceanographer at NOAA?s Pacific Marine Environmental
> > Laboratory<http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/>and co-author of the study, which
> > will appear April 3 in
> > *Geophysical Research Letters*. ?It?s a combination of natural
> variability,
> > along with warmer air and sea conditions caused by increased greenhouse
> > gases.?
> >
> > Overland and his co-author, Muyin Wang, a University of Washington
> research
> > scientist with the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and
> Ocean
> > in Seattle, analyzed projections from six computer models, including
> three
> > with sophisticated sea ice physics capabilities. That data was then
> combined
> > with observations of summer sea ice loss in 2007 and 2008.
> >
> > The area covered by summer sea ice is expected to decline from its
> current
> > 4.6 million square kilometers (about 1.8 million square miles) to about 1
> > million square kilometers (about 390,000 square miles) ? a loss
> > approximately two-fifths the size of the continental U.S. Much of the sea
> > ice would remain in the area north of Canada and Greenland and decrease
> > between Alaska and Russia in the Pacific Arctic.
> >
> > ?The Arctic is often called the ?Earth?s refrigerator? because the sea
> ice
> > helps cool the planet by reflecting the sun?s radiation back into space,?
> > said Wang. ?With less ice, the sun?s warmth is instead absorbed by the
> open
> > water, contributing to warmer temperatures in the water and the air.?
> >
> > NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth?s environment, from
> the
> > depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages
> our
> > coastal and marine resources.
> >
> > ------------------------------------------
> >
> > Vision2020 Post: Ted Moffett
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> > End of Vision2020 Digest, Vol 34, Issue 58
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