[Vision2020] Schwaller whiffs again

[J Ford]

Dougie-Boy has and "is" (working) with Sitler and Jamin Wight.....exposure!


J  :]





>From: Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com>
>To: vision2020 at moscow.com
>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Schwaller whiffs again
>Date: Wed, 30 May 2007 03:01:57 -0700 (PDT)
>
>Mr. Schwaller,
>
>Before I engage your argument, I have one thing I need to clear up. The 
>names of all of Mr. Sitler’s doctors, counselors, and therapists are 
>matters of public record, which is available upon request at the county 
>courthouse.
>
>Can you please tell me where in the public record I may confirm that you, 
>Mr. Glenn Schwaller, have “worked for several months with Mr Sitler and 
>other sex offenders in our area.”
>
>Thank you
>
>
>----- Original Message ----
>From: Glenn Schwaller <vpschwaller at gmail.com>
>To: Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com>; vision2020 at moscow.com
>Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 6:03:35 PM
>Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Schwaller whiffs again
>
>Mr Herodotus,
>
>Let me begin by addressing your last comments first, since I suspect
>most people are going to say "OH  @&*$#!!  Not more of this?!?"  and
>stop reading
>
>"Back to my original question that you refuse to answer: First, by
>what standard do you attribute "some modicum of sincerity" to an
>apology delivered by the psychopath Sitler?
>
>Having worked for several months with Mr Sitler and other sex
>offenders in our area, I felt he was grasping, through his previous
>and ongoing treatment, the fact he was lacking in conscience and in
>feelings for others, that is poor impulse control and manipulative
>behavior allowed him to take what he wanted and do as he pleased.  I
>believe a true psychopath feels he is doing no wrong, much like you
>and I feel going to the grocery store is not wrong.  I someone tells
>you "Hey - you can't go to the grocery store.  That's wrong!"  you're
>not going to believe them, much less apologize for it.  It's only
>through individual and group therapy and treatment that one begins to
>"unlearn" previous behaviors and perceived truths, and begin to learn
>what is morally and ethically correct and acceptable.  I simply feel
>Mr Sitler is starting to "get it", is beginning to feel apologetic
>about his actions, and hence his modicum (small or token) sincerity in
>any apology.  Maybe he just feels sorry for getting caught.  And I'm
>sure he does, but I believe it is slowly sinking in that he is sorry
>for his actions.  But I'm still not going to trust him with MY kids
>nor anyone elses.
>
>"and by what standard do you ask Messieurs Fox and Hansen to apologize?"
>
>   I guess the standard would be that I don't believe there to be any
>justification by anyone at anytime to, as you say "suggest putting his
>family at risk with the hope of teaching him a lesson."  I find that
>to be as evil and morally reprehensible as anything Mr Sitler has done
>
>Well I admit picking on poor Ms Opyr was a bit of a cheap shot - but I
>suppose I thought we were entitled to at least one on this venue.  I
>guess what caught my eye was a blanket three-quarters recidivism rate.
>And I'm not sure where that number came from, but I don't know that
>it matters all that much.
>
>My point was, I don't believe it is possible to give you a definitive
>answer.  Be it sex offenders in general or pedophiles in specific, the
>numbers are all over the place.  You came up with a number:
>"pedophiles who molest boys . . . were. . . the most likely to
>recidivate at (a) rate of 52%"   But I point out in that same article
>a study cites "no statistical difference in recidivism rates between
>offenders who were subjected to notification in Washington (19%) and
>those who were not (22%)."
>
>I don't know how many boys Mr Sitler abused; I do know that one victim
>was a girl.  So in Mr sitler's case, I don't know if 52% (or 19% or
>22%) holds or not.  I'm not trying to be "cute" - I'm trying to point
>out, yet again to you, that there is no one number for me to give.
>Apparently there is no one number for ANYONE to give.
>
>I believe you neglected to mention the part BEFORE the 52% rate
>(Research studies by the US Department of Justice and the Canadian
>Government have found that sexual offense recidivism rates are much
>lower than commonly believed).  Now granted the article states "sexual
>offense" rather than "pedophile" but specific terminology seems to be
>applied in a somewhat loose manner.  The article also states AFTER the
>statistic you quote "those who comply with probation and treatment
>have lower reoffense rates that (sic) those who violate the conditions
>of their release."  So again it appears these authors are not even
>sure of the 52% rate.  So let me state it to you once again:  I don't
>believe there is one number for me to give.
>
>I don't know anything about the Association for the Treatment of
>Sexual Abusers (ATSA), the site from which you obtained that number,
>but I found it to be an informative article.  I believe it to be much
>more credible than a couple of the other "references" you cite
>(Pyschology Diagnosis Dictionary and the Encyclopedia of Mind
>Disorders).  I would suggest everyone give the ATSA article a read.
>(www.atsa.com/ppOffenderFacts.html).  Particularly in light of the
>fact there are many nuggets of information you seem to have deemed not
>relevant:
>
>"Some research indicates that sex offenders who successfully complete
>a treatment program reoffend less often than those who do not
>demonstrate that they "got it"  (Marques, Miederanders, Dany, Nelson
>and van Ommeren, in Sexual Abuse, A Journal of Research and Treatment
>2005"
>
>I believe this was one of the reasons Mr Sitler received the jail time
>he got, rather than the prison sentence:  He would have been eligible
>for parole in 5 years, but have received no treatment during his
>incarceration.
>
>Also, even though you didn't specifically bring it up, many others
>have questioned how can Mr Sitler live is such close proximity to
>schools, parks, shopping malls.   And some went, as you so elegantly
>put, "positively bananas" over the notification lag in time for Mr
>Sitler's registry.  This was apparently also the case for Mr Wilson's
>lack of community notification as well.  Let me state for the record,
>despite the arguments the ATSA article makes, I am a proponent of
>notification.  I am a proponent of restrictions on where offenders may
>live.  I am NOT defending how Mr Wilson's handled the matter,  I'm
>simply pointing out that there is evidence (in the very article YOU,
>Mr Herodotus, quote from, and called to, MY attention) to suggest his
>position was not unreasonable:
>
>"There is no evidence that community notification reduces sex offense
>recidivism or increases community safety"
>
>"63% of the new sex offenses occurred in the jurisdiction where
>notification took place, suggesting that notification did not deter
>offenders or motivate them to venture outside their jurisdictions
>(where they would be less likely identified) to commit crimes.    . .
>. community notification appeared to have little effect on sex offense
>recidivism."
>
>"Notification may, ironically, interfere with its stated goal of
>enhancing public safety by exacerbating the stressors  . . . that my
>trigger some sex offenders to relapse."
>
>"There is no research to support the idea that residence restrictions
>prevent repeat sex crimes."
>
>"In Minnesota, sex offenders' proximity to schools or parks was not a
>factor in recidivism, nor did it impact community safety.  In fact the
>opposite was found to be true".
>
>Again, I find these statements hard to believe, and I do NOT subscribe
>to these ideas.  Yet someone is going to scan this post and again
>accuse me of siding with (or even BEING) Doug Wilson, Steven Sitler,
>Christ Church, Bill Thompson, the anti-Christ, and the list goes on.
>Ah well, the messenger always gets shot.
>
>Mr Herodotus states "Second, I asked, "Can you please share with us
>the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before
>their discovery?" However, you answered a question that that nobody
>asked."
>
>Well I did answer it - I gave you some concrete  examples of specific
>repeat violators and the numbers were from 1 to 125.   I'm sorry if
>you didn't like the answer.  But again my point is there is no one
>number for me.
>
>You go on to state "So once again, I refer you to the correct answer
>as cited from the aforementioned blog:   "It is also important to
>recognize that official recidivism statistics are  always lower than
>actual re-offense rates, because some sex offenders commit  many sex
>crimes that go unreported and undetected. . . . Offenders who seek out
>children to victimize by placing themselves in positions of trust,
>authority, and easy access to youngsters can have hundreds of victims
>over  the course of their lifetimes."
>
>So the answer is "some can have hundreds of victims"??  Well I think I
>agreed with that in my original repsonse.  Some very well may have
>hundreds of victims - others very well may not.
>
>Thirdly, Mr Herodotus you asked, "Can you please describe for us a
>worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow (number of victims, age
>of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern
>of serial predation?"
>
>Well yes I felt there was some sarcasm there since how can I, you, or
>anyone POSSIBLY know the number and age of potential victims, type of
>abuse, etc.  I tried to make this point even more succinct by pointing
>out that not even a serial pedophile can tell you the number and age
>of potential future victims.
>
>Not to be nit-picky but hey . . .  "Mr. Sitler will re-offend, and
>when he does . . ."
>
>Let me refer you to the ATSA article you have cited:
>
>". . .we cannot predict with certainty that any particular offender
>will act in a specific way . . ."
>
>I guess you seem to find it reasonable to depart from your own sources
>when it suits you eh?
>
>But to address the specific issue to which that snippet refers, Mr
>Sitler (and all sex offenders in treatment programs in our area)
>undergo risk assessment - what is the likelihood that a sex offender
>will commit a new sex crime in the future.  "Risk assessment allows us
>to identify the most dangerous sex offenders, and apply the most
>intensive interventions to those who need the greatest level of
>supervision, treatment, and restriction."  How effective is the
>treatment program and risk assessment evaluation available in our
>area?  I don't know.  I would suggest you call the treatment center
>and/or probation and parole and ask specific questions - let them know
>you are a concerned citizen.  Talk to the politicians representing
>you..  This bantering back and forth on this site I fear does nothing
>to help..
>
>You seem to have answered your 3rd question as best as I or anyone could:
>
>"no one will ever know how many innocents he will have raped nor how
>many times he will have raped them . . ."
>
>Which is pretty much what I said - no one can give you a definite
>answer.   I can only say that, again citing the ATSA article you
>provided, "the vast majority of sexually abused children (80-90%) are
>molested by family members and close friends or acquaintances"  which
>I think was proven out in Mr Sitler's case..  So, to try to reduce
>potential future abuse from Mr Sitler, if you are a family member,
>close friend or acquaintance of him, keep your children away from him.
>And make sure your friends, family, and acquaintances know who he is
>and why he is so dangerous.
>
>Schwaller
>
>
>
>
>
>On 5/29/07, Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com> wrote:
> > Dear Mr. Schwaller,
> >
> >
> > I am not Joan Opyr but your reference to her is a red flag that moves me 
>to
> > warn you not to read her stuff anymore, for fear that you may lapse into
> > another "I am not Doug Wilson, I just act like him" fit of rage. I say 
>this
> > because Doug Wilson went positively bananas last year after Joan Opyr 
>wrote
> > a piece that covered the larger story of the Kirk's molesters. Wilson 
>could
> > not challenge the integrity of the author or her article, so he resorted 
>to
> > nit-picking tomato-tomahta items to leave the false impression that she 
>got
> > it wrong. And once again the great man of God used the victims as his
> > pretext to try to silence her and CONTROL THE CONVERSATION, which only
> > proved that at Christ Church, the sheep give their lives for the 
>shepherd.
> > But my point is that if you avoid Ms. Opyr, you will probably avoid 
>another
> > "I am not Doug Wilson, I just act like him" tantrum, at least to the 
>extent
> > that she triggers them.
> >
> >
> >
> > Moving along, I must note that you whiffed again in response to my
> > questions. So, let's take it from the top.
> >
> >
> >
> > First, I asked, "Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial
> > pedophiles?" But you stacked your answer with piles of statistics 
>addressing
> > the recidivism rate for "sex-offenders," not "serial pedophiles," which 
>is a
> > subset of the "sex offender" category. More to point, it is a subset 
>with
> > specific statistics that make it more difficult to give dishonest 
>answers,
> > such as yours.
> >
> >
> >
> > You will recall that I told you about the blogger who originally 
>notified
> > the community about this unfortunate providence visited upon the Kirk 
>and
> > Pastor Wilson's lunatic response to the blogger. Well, last year the 
>blogger
> > posted some statistics that answer the question you avoided:
> >
> >
> >
> > "Also, men who prefer boys are approximately twice as likely to reoffend 
>as
> > those who prefer girls (Morrison, 1995)."
> > http://www.psychologytoday.com/conditions/pedophilia.html
> >
> >
> >
> > "Pedophiles, especially those who molest boys, or both boys and girls, 
>are
> > the sex offenders who have the highest recidivism (relapse) rates after
> > incarceration and/or treatment."
> > http://www.atsa.com/ppPedophiles.html
> >
> >
> >
> > "The younger the prisoner when released, the higher the rate of 
>recidivism.
> > For example, of all the sex offenders under age 25 at the time of 
>discharge
> > from prison, 59.8% were rearrested for some type of crime within 3 
>years, or
> > more than double the 23.5% of those age 45 or older."
> > http://www..ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/ascii/rsorp94.txt
> >
> >
> >
> > "In addition, the rate of recidivism for persons with a pedophilic
> > preference for males is approximately twice that of pedophiles who 
>prefer
> > females. . . . The prognosis of successfully ending pedophilic habits 
>among
> > persons who practice pedophilia is not favorable. Pedophiles have a high
> > rate of recidivism; that is, they tend to repeat their acts often over
> > time."
> > http://www.minddisorders.com/Ob-Ps/Pedophilia.html
> >
> >
> >
> > "Studies that have tracked sex offenders over longer follow-up periods 
>have
> > found that pedophiles who molest boys, and rapists of adult women, were 
>the
> > types of offenders most likely to recidivate at rates of 52% and 39%
> > respectively. . . . One study found that the average number of victims 
>for
> > non-incestuous pedophiles who molest girls is 20; for pedophiles who 
>prefer
> > boys, over 100. . . . Predatory pedophiles, especially those who molest
> > boys, are the sex offenders who have the highest recidivism rates. Over 
>long
> > follow-up periods, more than half of convicted pedophiles are rearrested 
>for
> > a new offense."
> > http://www.atsa.com/ppOffenderFacts.html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Therefore, Mr. Schwaller, you and your cheerleader Doug Farris may think
> > "somewhere between 5 and 95 percent" a cute response, but it is not 
>honest
> > and it is not funny.
> >
> >
> > Second, I asked, "Can you please share with us the average number of
> > children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?" However, 
>you
> > answered a question that that nobody asked. So once again, I refer you 
>to
> > the correct answer as cited from the aforementioned blog:
> >
> >
> >
> > "It is also important to recognize that official recidivism statistics 
>are
> > always lower than actual re-offense rates, because some sex offenders 
>commit
> > many sex crimes that go unreported and undetected. . . . Offenders who 
>seek
> > out children to victimize by placing themselves in positions of trust,
> > authority, and easy access to youngsters can have hundreds of victims 
>over
> > the course of their lifetimes."
> > http://www.atsa..com/ppOffenderFacts..html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > This was the point of my question that you somehow missed. And while you 
>and
> > your pom-pom boy may get a kick out of "somewhere between 1 and more 
>than
> > 125," I wonder if you really care about the "1" much less the "more than
> > 125." What if that "1" was yours, Mr. Schwaller; what if his parents 
>named
> > him Gabriel; would that remove your trite attitude? That was the point 
>of
> > Messieurs Fox and Hansen when they made their tasteless, albeit 
>on-point,
> > proposal about Pastor Wilson's grandchildren. They understand that 
>Douglas
> > Wilson doesn't care about any of the victims in this tragedy; hence they
> > suggested putting his family at risk with the hope of teaching him a 
>lesson.
> > However, both men assume that Wilson cares more for his children than 
>for
> > others, which assumes too much. Remember, Douglas Wilson doesn't care 
>about
> > anyone but himself because IT'S ALL ABOUT DOUG.
> >
> >
> > Third, I asked, "Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario 
>for
> > the children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of 
>abuse,
> > etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?" And what 
>you
> > called "an undercurrent of sarcasm" I call "reality," because this is 
>the
> > reality of the situation. Mr. Sitler will re-offend, and when he does,
> > innocent children will suffer. However, when and if someone catches him, 
>no
> > one will ever know how many innocents he will have raped nor how many 
>times
> > he will have raped them, which leads us back to my original question 
>that
> > you refuse to answer: First, by what standard do you attribute "some 
>modicum
> > of sincerity" to an apology delivered by the psychopath Sitler? and by 
>what
> > standard do you ask Messieurs Fox and Hansen to apologize?
> >
> >
> > Herodotus
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message ----
> >
> > From: Glenn Schwaller <vpschwaller at gmail.com></vpschwaller at gmail.com>
> >
> > To: Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com></bherodotus at yahoo.com>;
> > vision2020 at moscow..com
> >
> > Sent: Monday, May 28, 2007 2:18:47 PM
> >
> > Subject: Re: [Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. Schwaller
> >
> >
> >
> > Visionaries and Mr Herodotus,
> >
> >
> >
> > Thank you for the invitation to "return" but I never really left. I was
> > simply a bit busy over the past few days taking advantage of the weather
> > break to plant the begonias, nasturtiums, and geraniums.
> >
> >
> >
> > I'll attempt to answer your questions, but I do so assuming you are 
>being
> > genuine and not disingenuous in your query. I mention this only because
> > another visionary has questioned "the truth about (your) opinions", that
> > this individual "Doesn't believe I'll do that" (accept the truth of my
> > opinions), "thank you very much.", then proceeds to demand the answer to 
>3
> > additional questions.
> >
> >
> >
> > So, on to your questions. These are important, timely questions that 
>deserve
> > answers. However, I don't believe I can give you full nor adequate 
>answers
> > to any of them. I don't know that definitive answers exist, however one 
>can
> > find just about any answer one wants to fit one's position. That being 
>said:
> >
> >
> >
> > "1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?"
> >
> >
> >
> > I don't believe a thorough statistical study has been done for over 10
> > years. So keeping that in mind, according to the U.S. Department of 
>Justice
> > Bureau of Justice Statistics, within 3 years of release from 
>incarceration,
> > a little more than 5 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for 
>another
> > sex crime. If one looks at ALL crimes committed, about 40 percent of sex
> > offenders were rearrested for other offenses.
> >
> >
> >
> > Within this three year period, 3.5 percent of convicted sex offenders 
>were
> > convicted again for a sex crime, 24 percent convicted for new crimes, 
>and
> > about 40 percent are imprisoned again because of a parole or probation
> > violation.
> >
> >
> >
> > However, if you're Joan Opyr, in an article she published not quite a 
>year
> > ago, she quotes a 75% recidivism rate.
> >
> >
> >
> > The USDJ study also looked at the relationship between offenders and 
>victims
> > and reported that overall, 46 percent of the victims were a family 
>member. A
> > 2005 study by the National Crime Victimization Survey reports that 73
> > percent of sexual assaults were known by the victim: 38 percent were a
> > friend or acquaintance, 28 percent were involved in an "intimate"
> > relationship, and 7 percent were another relative.
> >
> >
> >
> > An NPR story in 2005 offered a 98 percent recidivism rate over a 25 year
> > period, with a 60 percent likelihood of offending again within 5 years 
>under
> > the best treatment available., there is a 60% occurrence of re-offence
> > within five years. The story also mentions that the offender in most 
>sexual
> > abuse cases is a family member or friend of the family (97 percent for
> > victims under the age of 6, and 95 percent of those between the ages 6 
>and
> > 12).
> >
> >
> >
> > So, somewhere between 5 and 95 percent?
> >
> >
> >
> > "2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that 
>repeat
> > offenders violate before their discovery?"
> >
> >
> >
> > Again, I have no concrete statistics. There is apparently some 
>information
> > on Mr Sitler's repeated violations before he was discovered (I'm sure Mr
> > Hansen can give you that number off the top of his head). The numbers 
>seem
> > to run from one to dozens over decades for catholic priests. And in
> > Portugal, a driver and gardener was accused of molesting children at the
> > school where he was worked. After questioning and examining more than 
>600
> > children, over 125 were reported to have been victimized by this 
>individual.
> >
> >
> >
> > So, somewhere between 1 and more than 125?
> >
> >
> >
> > "3, Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the 
>children of
> > Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr.
> > Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?"
> >
> >
> >
> > Quite frankly, I sense an undercurrent of sarcasm in this last question, 
>but
> > hey . . .
> >
> >
> >
> > Maybe you can ask me how many polar bears, perched on their 
>ever-diminishing
> > slab of ice, are going to starve tonight?
> >
> >
> >
> > Well, obviously I can't give you the answers you would like to hear. I 
>doubt
> > even Mr Sitler himself would know, given the worst possible case, what 
>would
> > be the answers to those questions. However, if you refer back to the 
>replies
> > to Question 1, you may find some answers of sorts in there.
> >
> >
> >
> > I'd like to think I have the community's, but perhaps not that of 
>starving
> > polar bear's, interests at heart.
> >
> >
> >
> > Schwaller
> >
> >
> >
> > "You can always see it commin', but you can never stop it."
> >
> >   --Michael Timmins
> >
> >
> >
> > On 5/28/07, Bob Herodotus
> > <bherodotus at yahoo.com></bherodotus at yahoo.com>wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > Visionaries and Mr. Schwaller,
> >
> >
> >
> > I personally invite Mr. Schwaller to return to this forum because I for 
>one
> > found his posts both provocative and enlightening. Hard facts about 
>serial
> > pedophiles are difficult to ascertain and I commend him for sharing his
> > knowledge of this unseemly subject with us so that we as a community can 
>be
> > better prepared to address a predator in our midst.
> >
> >
> >
> > With this in mind, I have a couple of questions for Mr. Schwaller.
> >
> >
> >
> > 1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?
> >
> >
> >
> > 2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that 
>repeat
> > offenders violate before their discovery?
> >
> >
> >
> > 3. Finally, given your familiarity with Steven Sitler's case file, can 
>you
> > please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow
> > (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr. Sitler
> > resumes his pattern of serial predation?
> >
> >
> >
> > I believe that these are reasonable questions for a community to ask and 
>I
> > believe that you have our community's best interests at heart.
> >
> >
> >
> > Thank you,
> >
> >
> >
> > Herodotus
>
>
>
>
>
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