[Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. Schwaller

Tue May 29 07:52:00 PDT 2007

Somewhere between five and 98 percent of all Visionaires who read the post below detect an undercurrent of  snarling, manly arrogance.  I'm guessing that the two percent were raising their Sabbath glasses to him.Either way, his attempts to mask his disdain for his questioner by quoting the gamut of statistics that might address the Sitler situation fell flat.  I'm afraid indifference to the genuine concern expressed by other Visionaires and disdain for them for expressing it leaked out like a robust Syrah in cloudy, cracked stemware.I'll try it the simple, albeit shrill and insistent, manner Schwaller by now knows me for:Can you possibly grasp the anger this community has toward Sitler and those who dealt with him, and can you understand the legitimate fears of those concerned that he's out of jail?  keelyDate: Mon, 28 May 2007 14:18:47 -0700From: vpschwaller at gmail.comTo: bherodotus at yahoo.com; vision2020 at moscow.comSubject: Re: [Vision2020] A personal invitation to Mr. SchwallerVisionaries and Mr Herodotus,

Thank you for the invitation to "return" but I never really left. 
I was simply a bit busy over the past few days taking advantage of the
weather break to plant the begonias, nasturtiums, and geraniums.

I'll attempt to answer your questions, but I do so assuming you are
being genuine and not disingenuous in your query.  I mention this
only because another visionary has questioned "the truth about (your)
opinions", that this individual "Doesn't believe I'll do that" (accept
the truth of my opinions), "thank you very much.", then proceeds to
demand the answer to 3 additional questions.

So, on to your questions.  These are important, timely questions
that deserve answers.  However, I don't believe I can give you
full nor adequate answers to any of them.  I don't know that
definitive answers exist, however one can find just about any answer
one wants to fit one's position.  That being said:

"1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?"

I don't believe a thorough statistical study has been done for over 10
years.  So keeping that in mind, according to the U.S. Department
of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics, within 3 years of release from
incarceration, a little more than 5 percent of sex offenders were
rearrested for another sex crime.  If one looks at ALL crimes
committed, about 40 percent of sex offenders were rearrested for other
offenses.

Within this three year period, 3.5 percent of convicted sex offenders
were convicted again for a sex crime, 24 percent convicted for new
crimes, and about 40 percent are imprisoned again because of a parole
or probation violation.

However, if you're Joan Opyr, in an article she published not quite a year ago, she quotes a 75% recidivism rate.

The USDJ study also looked at the relationship between offenders and
victims and reported that overall, 46 percent of the victims were a
family member.  A 2005 study by the National Crime Victimization
Survey reports that 73 percent of sexual assaults were known by the
victim: 38 percent were a friend or acquaintance, 28 percent were
involved in an "intimate" relationship, and 7 percent were another
relative.    

An NPR story in 2005 offered a 98 percent recidivism rate over a 25
year period, with a 60 percent likelihood of offending again within 5
years under the best treatment available., there is a 60% occurrence of
re-offence within five years. The story also mentions that the offender
in most sexual abuse cases is a family member or friend of the
family  (97 percent for victims under the age of 6, and 95 percent
of those between the ages 6 and 12).

So, somewhere between 5 and 95 percent?

"2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?"

Again, I have no concrete statistics.  There is apparently some
information on Mr Sitler's repeated violations before he was discovered
(I'm sure Mr Hansen can give you that number off the top of his
head).  The numbers seem to run from one to dozens over decades
for catholic priests.  And in Portugal, a driver and gardener was
accused of molesting children at the school where he was worked. 
After questioning and examining more than 600 children, over 125 were
reported to have been victimized by this individual.

So, somewhere between 1 and more than 125? 

"3,  Can you please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the
children of Moscow (number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse,
etc.), if Mr. Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?"

Quite frankly, I sense an undercurrent of sarcasm in this last question, but hey . . .

Maybe you can ask me how many polar bears, perched on their ever-diminishing slab of ice, are going to starve tonight?

Well, obviously I can't give you the answers you would like to
hear.  I doubt even Mr Sitler himself would know, given the worst
possible case, what would be the answers to those questions. 
However, if you refer back to the replies to Question 1, you may find
some answers of sorts in there.

I'd like to think I have the community's, but perhaps not that of starving polar bear's, interests at heart.

Schwaller

"You can always see it commin', but you can never stop it."
  --Michael Timmins

On 5/28/07, Bob Herodotus <bherodotus at yahoo.com
> wrote:
Visionaries and Mr. Schwaller,I
personally invite Mr. Schwaller to return to this forum because I for
one found his posts both provocative and enlightening. Hard facts about
serial pedophiles are difficult to ascertain and I commend him for
sharing his knowledge of this unseemly subject with us so that we as a
community can be better prepared to address a predator in our midst.With this in mind, I have a couple of questions for Mr. Schwaller.1. Can you please tell us the recidivism rate for serial pedophiles?

2. Can you please share with us the average number of children that repeat offenders violate before their discovery?3.
Finally, given your familiarity with Steven Sitler's case file, can you
please describe for us a worst-case scenario for the children of Moscow
(number of victims, age of victims, types of abuse, etc.), if Mr.
Sitler resumes his pattern of serial predation?I believe that
these are reasonable questions for a community to ask and I believe
that you have our community's best interests at heart.Thank you,Herodotus____________________________________________________________________________________Looking for earth-friendly autos?
Browse Top Cars by "Green Rating" at Yahoo! Autos' Green Center.http://autos.yahoo.com/green_center/
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