[Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
Tom Hansen
thansen@moscow.com
Fri, 7 May 2004 05:51:32 -0700
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Alas! Something that Ms. Kraut and I can truly agree upon.
Yes. I think that the election in November is going to make the one in 2000
look like a grade school vote for hallway monitor.
Just under six months to go with virtually a dead-even race between Bush and
Kerry with Nader's 3% to 6% in the balance, not to mention 275 million
Americans.
As a famous actress once said, "Fasten your seat belts. It's going to get a
little bumpy."
Put on your raincoat, as well. The weather forecast is for isolated and
increased muckslinging from now through October.
As Don Henley put it so aptly:
Dirty little secrets
Dirty little lies
We got our dirty little fingers in everybody’s pie
We love to cut you down to size
We love dirty laundry
Take care,
Tom Hansen
Just another liberal elitist loose in the Palouse
"Patriotism is not a short and frenzied outburst of emotion but the tranquil
and steady dedication of a lifetime."
- - Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
-----Original Message-----
From: vision2020-admin@moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]On
Behalf Of Pat Kraut
Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2004 10:23 PM
To: vision2020
Subject: Re: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
This is most interesting. Anyone brave enough to actually make a
prediction on this election is amazing. I for one would not make any call at
all. Yes, I know how I will vote and that is probably the same as this state
but that is not a surprise. It is the surprise states that will make the
difference. It will make for a long night.
PK
----- Original Message -----
From: Joan Opyr
To: Vision2020 Moscow
Sent: Thursday, May 06, 2004 3:40 PM
Subject: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to lose?
Snipped from a piece by Paul M. Weyrich, detailing speakers and events
at a recent conservative gathering, for CNSNews, 5/5/04:
". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most intriguing
briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right when
almost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the slight
tilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections.
What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came
through loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as Bush's to
lose, he believes this election is Kerry's to lose.
He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the electorate is
undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is undecided.
Finding such people when polling is becoming exceedingly difficult, he told
us. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who MIGHT be persuaded to
vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic low.
Zogby believes that this election most resembles that of 1800 when John
Adams was running for re-election. Thomas Jefferson was his opponent. He
surprised the group by reciting some of the nasty things that were said by
both sides in that election. Zogby said that when we hear that this is the
nastiest election in history, it is not necessarily the case.
Zogby went on to detail his thesis that there really are two Americas.
The social and political differences between the "blue" states, which Al
Gore carried in 2000, and the "red" states, which Bush carried in that
election, are profound in every category and becoming more so.
Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states that he carried in
2000 plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep what Gore carried. If
he can just add a state or two to the Gore total...Kerry wins. Zogby
suggested it might be possible for Bush to carry the popular vote but lose
the election, the reverse of what happened in 2000 when Gore had more than a
half million votes more than Bush.
Zogby told us that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he might just
lose it. He absolutely dismissed suggestions that are coming up from both
the left and right that Kerry is proving to be such a bad candidate he might
be replaced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the occasion at the end of the
campaign, when it counts.
Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thought to be the
favorite against Kerry but who lost a close election when Kerry came alive
and beat him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is constantly
underestimated. He thinks veterans will be crucial in this election and
right now Kerry has an edge with veterans because he has emphasized them so
much and because there is some dissatisfaction with the way that Bush is
handling the war. That however, according to Zogby, could change.
While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that is, we
re-elect the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) or we toss
him out of office by a wide margin (think Hoover or Carter), Zogby believes
this election, barring some unforeseen events, is going to be another
nail-biter. He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, although the White
House disputes that. They believe they have an excellent chance to carry
Ohio. No Republican in modern times has won the Presidency without Ohio
After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at 6 p.m, we
adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's comments. The
participants in the briefing were all influential people. Zogby shook them
to the core."
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Alas! Something that Ms. =
Kraut and I=20
can truly agree upon.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Yes. I think that the =
election in=20
November is going to make the one in 2000 look like a grade school vote =
for=20
hallway monitor.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Just under six months to go with =
virtually a=20
dead-even race between Bush and Kerry with Nader's 3% to 6% in the =
balance,=20
not to mention 275 million Americans.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>As a famous actress once said, =
"Fasten your=20
seat belts. It's going to get a little bumpy."</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Put on your raincoat, as =
well. The=20
weather forecast is for isolated and increased muckslinging from now =
through=20
October.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>As Don Henley put it so =
aptly:</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004><!--StartFragment -->Dirty little=20
secrets<BR>Dirty little lies<BR>We got our dirty little fingers in =
everybody=92s=20
pie<BR>We love to cut you down to size<BR>We love dirty =
laundry</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Take care,</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Tom Hansen</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>Just another liberal elitist loose =
in the=20
Palouse</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004>
<DIV><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; =
mso-bidi-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; =
mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">"Patriotism=20
is not a short and frenzied outburst of emotion but the tranquil and =
steady=20
dedication of a lifetime." </SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; =
mso-bidi-font-family: 'Arial Unicode MS'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; =
mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">-<SPAN=20
class=3D553073812-07052004> </SPAN>-<SPAN class=3D553073812-07052004> =
</SPAN>Adlai=20
E. Stevenson, Jr.</SPAN></DIV> </SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px =
solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
vision2020-admin@moscow.com [mailto:vision2020-admin@moscow.com]<B>On =
Behalf=20
Of </B>Pat Kraut<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 06, 2004 10:23 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
vision2020<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Vision2020] Kerry's election to=20
lose?<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This is most interesting. Anyone brave enough =
to=20
actually make a prediction on this election is amazing. I for one =
would not=20
make any call at all. Yes, I know how I will vote and that is probably =
the=20
same as this state but that is not a surprise. It is the surprise =
states that=20
will make the difference. It will make for a long night. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PK</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dauntiestablishment@hotmail.com=20
href=3D"mailto:auntiestablishment@hotmail.com">Joan Opyr</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dvision2020@moscow.com=20
href=3D"mailto:vision2020@moscow.com">Vision2020 Moscow</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, May 06, 2004 =
3:40=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [Vision2020] Kerry's =
election=20
to lose?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<P>Snipped from a piece by Paul M. Weyrich, =
detailing speakers and=20
events at a recent conservative gathering, for <I>CNSNews,=20
5/5/04:</I> <BR></P>
<P>". . . . But it was pollster John Zogby who gave the most =
intriguing=20
briefing. Zogby has to be taken seriously because he got it right =
when=20
almost all the pollsters had it wrong in 2000. He also caught the =
slight=20
tilt toward the Republicans on the eve of the 2002 elections. </P>
<P>What he told the group upset most of them -- but his message came =
through=20
loud and clear. While most pollsters view this election as Bush's to =
lose,=20
he believes this election is Kerry's to lose.=20
<P>He said that usually at this time of year, 20-25% of the =
electorate is=20
undecided, but this year there only 5% of the electorate is =
undecided.=20
Finding such people when polling is becoming exceedingly difficult, =
he told=20
us. Moreover, the soft vote, that is the people who MIGHT be =
persuaded to=20
vote for the other guy, is only 10% -- a historic low.=20
<P>Zogby believes that this election most resembles that of 1800 =
when John=20
Adams was running for re-election. Thomas Jefferson was his =
opponent. He=20
surprised the group by reciting some of the nasty things that were =
said by=20
both sides in that election. Zogby said that when we hear that this =
is the=20
nastiest election in history, it is not necessarily the case.=20
<P>Zogby went on to detail his thesis that there really are two =
Americas.=20
The social and political differences between the "blue" states, =
which Al=20
Gore carried in 2000, and the "red" states, which Bush carried in =
that=20
election, are profound in every category and becoming more so.=20
<P>Thus, Bush is really trying to carry those states that he carried =
in 2000=20
plus a few others while Kerry is trying to keep what Gore carried. =
If he can=20
just add a state or two to the Gore total...Kerry wins. Zogby =
suggested it=20
might be possible for Bush to carry the popular vote but lose the =
election,=20
the reverse of what happened in 2000 when Gore had more than a half =
million=20
votes more than Bush.=20
<P>Zogby told us that while this is Kerry's election to lose, he =
might just=20
lose it. He absolutely dismissed suggestions that are coming up from =
both=20
the left and right that Kerry is proving to be such a bad candidate =
he might=20
be replaced. He thinks Kerry will rise to the occasion at the end of =
the=20
campaign, when it counts.=20
<P>Zogby said to remember Gov. Bill Weld, who was thought to be the =
favorite=20
against Kerry but who lost a close election when Kerry came alive =
and beat=20
him. He said Kerry, like Bush in 2000, is constantly underestimated. =
He=20
thinks veterans will be crucial in this election and right now Kerry =
has an=20
edge with veterans because he has emphasized them so much and =
because there=20
is some dissatisfaction with the way that Bush is handling the war. =
That=20
however, according to Zogby, could change.=20
<P>While most re-election campaigns tend to be decisive, that is, we =
re-elect the incumbent overwhelmingly (think Reagan or Clinton) or =
we toss=20
him out of office by a wide margin (think Hoover or Carter), Zogby =
believes=20
this election, barring some unforeseen events, is going to be =
another=20
nail-biter. He insists that Ohio is this year's Florida, although =
the White=20
House disputes that. They believe they have an excellent chance to =
carry=20
Ohio. No Republican in modern times has won the Presidency without =
Ohio=20
<P>After this daylong briefing, which began at noon and ended at 6 =
p.m, we=20
adjourned to dinner, where the buzz was all about Zogby's comments. =
The=20
participants in the briefing were all influential people. Zogby =
shook them=20
to the core." =20
<P> </P><BR clear=3Dall>
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