[Vision2020] MSD trends
Donovan Arnold
donovanarnold@hotmail.com
Mon, 02 Jun 2003 17:47:10 -0700
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<P>Hi Dale,</P></DIV>
<P> You wrote:</P>
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<DIV></DIV>>"* The validity of my prediction for 2008-2009? I'm using an historical
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<DIV></DIV>>analysis starting with the 1997 data that takes all the data points since
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<DIV></DIV>>into account. You'll have to wait and see if I'm right. Let me tell you this
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<DIV></DIV>>much: MSD did their enrollment projections (
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<DIV></DIV>http://www.sd281.k12.id.us/GeneralInformation/files/Enrollment.pdf). Yours
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<DIV></DIV>>truly was off by 3%. MSD was off by 216%. In fact, MSD predicted to have as
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<DIV></DIV>>many students at the end of 2004 as they are starting with now (i.e., they
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<P>>were off by a whole year). Not a great one-year prediction!"</P>
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<P>You must not confuse "prediction" with "preparation." Looking at the MSD numbers (your link) I think they are doing the correct thing. Only since 1998 has the MSD been losing numbers every year. Since 1998 it has only lost 325 students. That "might" seem like a lot for a school district of only 2,700-2300. However, that is only a loss of 5 students per grade per year. On the overall this looks significant. But from the teacher and classroom perspective it is hardly noticeable. Furthermore, you can't do anything about it. If you lose 5 students this is not enough to cut a teacher or combine classes, thus saving space and resources. Ideally, if you were in a free market you would shrink the number of grades from K-12 to just K-11 and then replace students according to the ability of the students and cut the less effective teachers out. Unfortunately, we can't do this, we have to have K-12. If you are in a big district where a 5-10% decrease would mean a thousand studen!
ts you could cut staff and save money. But if you have less then 200 students in a grade and 10 less students it is hard to save that money. Especially when it is possible that you could gain an additional 15 students in any one grade over the year. Thus they "prepare" for this increase based on what has happened in the past. The MSD can't say "Hey sorry we are full go some place else. I hear Pullman has a spot in the 4th grade and Lewiston has a spot in the 6th go send your kids there." If they get 20 extra students in the middle of the school year for the 5th grade they have to take them. You can't predict that, you can only "prepare" for the possibility, and that is what they are doing.</P>
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<P>Two other points I wish to make to clarify where you and I differ (correct me if I am reading incorrectly).</P>
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<P>You and I both agree that it is absolutely ridiculous that the budget for school had increased 3.7x even though the population has decreased.</P>
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<P>Where you and I split on this issue is who is at fault and what the solution should be.</P>
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<P>You seem to place the blame on the Moscow School District. And seem to think that the solution should be to simply cut the budget and force them to come up with ways to stay within the budget.</P>
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<P>I don't place the entire blame on the Moscow School District. I only place a small portion on them (like maybe 5-10%). I place the bulk of the blame on factors outside the control of the MSD. My evidence for this is that it is a national phenomenon of outrageous soaring prices for educating a child today. All school districts are facing increasing costs at huge percentages, even on the college and university levels. </P>
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<P>My solution is to first identify possible causes for the increases in costs. I don't think it is teachers being paid high wages. Nor do I think students are sitting in gold chairs. Nor do I think every school district in America is fraudulent. If you find out what the factors are please let everyone know because the US Senate did an intensive research investigation as to the causes of ever increasing costs and their findings were inclusive. I do not think we have the resources of special skills to figure this out with some real help, all we can do is guess and try to test our hypothesis as to what it is. </P>
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<P>You wrote:</P>
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<P>"Most liberals (rightly so) scream about monopolies. Yet, when it comes to </P>
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<P>>probably the most important aspect of our society, liberals insist on having </P>
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<P>>a government provided monopoly. Why is that?"</P>
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<P>I don't have a problem with private or specialized schools. As a matter of fact I strongly support the idea of lots of them. I think the strength of the United States comes from the wide varity of people and the experiences, skills, genes, and educations they have had. That is why I am against the SATs, Standard Aptitude Tests. Not all public school systems teach the same things or at the same times in the same way. Who wants 50 million children that only know the same things in the same way, that is stupid and not progressive. Nor will everyone ever know the same basic things either unless we make are children droids. I am however, against the notion of people complaining that they have to pay pack society for the costs they incurred for their education when they were kids. I am against funding private schools with public dollars because it is a business that makes a profit off of it. If it was a non-profit school that did not discriminate(gender, religion, race, disabil!
ity, income) I would be in favor of giving it public dollars. In other words, if private citizens got together for the purpose of making a better school or specialized school for the children in the community because they cared about the children's welfare that would be great let us fund it.</P>
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<P>In terms of your suggestion that "private schools" are not increasing in costs I have to disagree, at least on the higher education level. Private schools are increasing at the same rate as the public schools, if not more.</P>
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<P>In addition, Private schools in K-12 do not have to play by the same rules as the public schools. Private schools do not have a stratified sample of the public school system students. First, they can select who they will or not except and keep. If one child is difficult they can force them to shape up or kick them out. Second, the parents are more attentive to the child's education. Obviously if they took their child out of the public school system and are paying good money they want to be involved in their child's education. Third, most children that go to private schools are either the same in ideologically mindset (like religion), or wealthy, or both. Children that are in these families usually have a stable and set family lifestyle where it is easier to have a child concentrate on school. Most children that live in unstable family environments have more problems, it is these students with these problems that require more resources and energy a!
nd hinder the rest of class from making progress. Private schools do not deal with this and can mess with the system in ways that the public system can't. They take all kinds of kids and their problems.</P>
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<P>You asked :"One final question to you: what is the major concern about having a monopoly </P>
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<P>>in charge of education? A monopoly can set the price of the product to </P>
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<P>>whatever they want because their is no competition to drive it down. And </P>
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<P>>that's what we see with government education. If Americans treated education </P>
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<P>>like every other market good, we would have choice. Choice is always good; </P>
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<P>>and choice drives down prices and increases quality. </P>
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<P>Not always. There is something called "natural monopolies". Like telephones, computers, and railways. Telephones are needed because it costs a great deal to place lines everywhere, and wouldn't it be horrible to only be able to call people with that telephone company. Computers are too. Image if you were only able to send emails to people with that type of computer. And railways, they use to have rails that were different sizes and designs until they standardized them. Otherwise we would have had 8 different set of tracks going to every location so the eight different train companies could go there and be competitive. This competition actually makes costs go up. If you think one educational system in the MSD is expensive, imagine paying for 4 or 5 of them with your tax dollars. But I am for this. I would happily to pay 3 or more times in property taxes to create more opportunities for children in the Moscow area. However, I am certain that you would not. So we are stuck w!
ith just the one.</P>
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<P>One last thing. I think you are looking at the educational system all wrong. You seem to think that you are a victim of the system by paying into it. In fact, you are not. The government doesn't owe you one thing. You owe it. The government has provided you with an education. That money that people paid could have been invested privately by the people that spent it on your education. Because of this, they are living at a lower standard of living so you could have a productive meaningful life. Instead of being thankful for it, you seem to be bitter that you are asked to do the same in return. I can guarantee you that the people that paid for your education lived a much lower standard of living then you do, and you should be happy they didn't complain, cap and/or withdraw funding from your education. I understand that it is costly to you to pay for this, however, the cost of not educating our children is even greater, and the rewards are immeasurable. </P>
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<P>Take Care,</P>
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<P>Donovan J Arnold</P>
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