[Vision2020] MSD trends
Dale Courtney
dale@courtneys.us
Sun, 1 Jun 2003 07:44:12 -0700
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Donovan,
=20
I'll answer your three-part question in three different Email.=20
=20
First, concerning the validity of those numbers. I received them =
directly
from MSD, and they had them printed out from the State Board of =
Education in
Boise. They are from the Board's payroll computer in Idaho by which they
gather all of the statistics for the entire state. In those graphs, =
there
were no massaging of numbers. What you saw plotted were the final =
numbers I
received directly from them.=20
=20
Second, those numbers are collected for every school district in Idaho. =
If
there is a bias in the numbers, then there is a systematic bias across =
the
state. That means an argument of "well, MSD has these special things"
doesn't fly. We're one of 114 school districts in the state.=20
=20
Third, concerning your question about disabilities:=20
* Why do you think that the disability rate is increasing
exponentially? Why would that be? Can you tell me what the disability
numbers are for Idaho and MSD?=20
* How much more does a child with disabilities cost to educate over
and above a non-disabled child? (BTW, I know the answer to that one).=20
Fourth, the State of Idaho's spending only increased by a factor of 2.1 =
over
the same period of time. MSD was 3.7. Guess where MSD got the extra
$3,111,696? Yup, local taxes have increased by that much just for MSD!
=20
Fifth, concerning the fixed costs of educating a child, you could look =
at
the smallest school districts in Idaho to see what their budgets were, =
then
extrapolate from there. There are four school districts in Idaho =
(Prairie;
Three Creek; Arbon; and Pleasant Valley) that fall into those =
categories. Of
course, fixed costs can be reduced when you have a downsizing of student
enrollment. When MSD reaches 50% of its previous size (around =
2008-2009),
then there's no reason to maintain the same amount of fixed overhead. =
That's
just good business sense. Using your example, if Ford had 50% fewer =
escorts
purchased in 10 years, they would close a plant or two.=20
=20
Sixth, concerning the rate of inflation. That is what the discussion is =
all
about. By saying that education must inflate at a rate of 10% (MSD's has
been inflating at 9.1% per year), we are buying into the notion that
education is its own beast. I'm questioning that very logic.=20
* We see that people in the past had significantly better educations
than people today (just look at the SATs/ACTs and the level of writing =
that
we're getting from students today verses 30 years ago. Look at the =
college
entrance requirements from 100 years ago verses today. Most professors =
at UI
couldn't pass a college entrance exam from 100 years ago!); and they did =
it
for a lot less money.=20
* We can look at the rate of inflation among private, non-parochial
schools, and see that those are about the same as the economic inflation
rate.=20
* The economic inflation rate includes labor issues (the most
expensive factor in education). What we are really saying is that the =
cost
for educators is increasing at a rate of 3 times that of the rest of the
workforce. Now there is the problem (we'll come back to that later).=20
* Also, as of this year, MSD has fallen from a 2nd tier district (size
2,500-5,000 students) to a third tier district (1,000-2,500 students).
Smaller school districts don't have the luxury of the economies of scale
that the larger school districts do. That means you cannot have a staff
ratio commensurate with Blaine County! Next to Blaine County (the =
richest
county in the state), we have the second smallest student/teacher ratio =
in
the state. Justify that!
Finally, can you tell me why we're spending 3.7 times as much
(inflation-adjusted) for education today than we did 15 years ago? And =
why
all the correlations are backwards (test scores, enrollment, and staff)? =
=20
I'll answer the other two sections later.=20
=20
Best,
Dale
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>Donovan,</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>I'll=20
answer your three-part question in three different Email. =
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>First,=20
concerning the <U>validity</U> of those numbers. I received them =
directly from=20
MSD, and they had them printed out from the State Board of Education in =
Boise.=20
They are from the Board's payroll computer in Idaho by which they gather =
all of=20
the statistics for the entire state. In those graphs, there were =
<U>no</U>=20
massaging of numbers. What you saw plotted were the final numbers I =
received directly from them. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>Second, those numbers are collected for <U>every</U> school =
district in=20
Idaho. If there is a bias in the numbers, then there is a systematic =
bias across=20
the state. That means an argument of "well, MSD has <U>these</U> special =
things"=20
doesn't fly. We're one of 114 school districts in the state.=20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>Third,=20
concerning your question about disabilities: </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#800000 size=3D2>Why=20
do you think that the disability rate is increasing exponentially? Why =
would=20
that be? Can you tell me what the disability numbers are for Idaho and =
MSD?=20
</FONT></SPAN></LI>
<LI><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#800000 size=3D2>How=20
much more does a child with disabilities cost to educate over and =
above a=20
non-disabled child? (BTW, I know the answer to that one).=20
</FONT></SPAN></LI></UL>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>Fourth, the State of Idaho's spending only increased by a =
factor of 2.1=20
over the same period of time. MSD was 3.7. Guess where MSD got the extra =
$3,111,696? Yup, local taxes have increased by that much <U>just</U> for =
MSD!</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>Fifth,=20
concerning the fixed costs of educating a child, you could look at the =
smallest=20
school districts in Idaho to see what their budgets were, then =
extrapolate from=20
there. There are four school districts in Idaho (Prairie; Three Creek; =
Arbon;=20
and Pleasant Valley) that fall into those categories. Of course, fixed =
costs can=20
be reduced when you have a downsizing of student enrollment. When MSD =
reaches=20
50% of its previous size (around 2008-2009), then there's no reason to =
maintain=20
the same amount of fixed overhead. That's just good business sense. =
Using your=20
example, if Ford had 50% fewer escorts purchased in 10 years, they would =
close a=20
plant or two. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>Sixth,=20
concerning the rate of inflation. That <U>is</U> what the discussion is =
all=20
about. By saying that education <U>must</U> inflate at a rate of 10% =
(MSD's has=20
been inflating at 9.1% per year), we are buying into the notion that =
education=20
is its own beast. I'm questioning that very logic. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003></SPAN><SPAN =
class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#800000 size=3D2>We see that people in the past =
had=20
significantly better educations than people today (just look at the =
SATs/ACTs=20
and the level of writing that we're getting from students today verses =
30=20
years ago. Look at the college entrance requirements from 100 years =
ago verses=20
today. Most professors at UI couldn't pass a college entrance exam =
from 100=20
years ago!); and they did it for a lot less money. </FONT></SPAN></LI>
<LI><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#800000 size=3D2>We=20
can look at the rate of inflation among private, non-parochial =
schools, and=20
see that those are about the same as the economic inflation rate.=20
</FONT></SPAN></LI>
<LI><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#800000 size=3D2>The=20
economic inflation rate includes labor issues (the most expensive =
factor in=20
education). What we are <U>really</U> saying is that the cost for =
educators is=20
increasing at a rate of 3 times that of the rest of the workforce. Now =
<U>there</U> is the problem (we'll come back to that later).=20
</FONT></SPAN></LI>
<LI><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#800000 size=3D2>Also,=20
as of this year, MSD has fallen from a 2nd tier district (size =
2,500-5,000=20
students) to a third tier district (1,000-2,500 students). Smaller =
school=20
districts don't have the luxury of the economies of scale that the =
larger=20
school districts do. That means you cannot have a staff ratio =
commensurate=20
with Blaine County! Next to Blaine County (the richest county in the =
state),=20
we have the second smallest student/teacher ratio in the state. =
Justify=20
that!</FONT></SPAN></LI></UL>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>Finally, can you tell me why we're spending 3.7 times as much=20
(inflation-adjusted) for education today than we did 15 years ago? And =
why=20
<U>all</U> the correlations are backwards (test scores, enrollment, and =
staff)?=20
</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2>I'll=20
answer the other two sections later. </FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D686595813-01062003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#800000 =
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft><FONT color=3D#800000><FONT size=3D2><FONT=20
face=3DArial>Best,</FONT><BR></FONT><FONT face=3D"Vladimir Script"=20
size=3D5>Dale</FONT></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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