[Vision2020] MSD trends
Dale Courtney
dale@courtneys.us
Sat, 31 May 2003 17:21:54 -0700
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Visionaries:=20
Yesterday, I received some interesting 15-year data from MSD. I just
completed analyzing and graphing it, and thought that some of my =
thoughtful
antagonists may enjoy wrestling through it with me. Here's what I looked =
at:
* MSD Expenditures=20
* MSD Enrollment=20
* MSD Test Scores=20
* MSD Staffing1=20
<http://courtneys.us/MSD/images/MSD_trends.jpg>=20
When inflation is taken into consideration, the following three very
interesting trends come out:
* Fact #1: Adjusting for inflation, MSD's spending has increased at a
rate 3.7 times faster than student enrollment.=20
* Commentary:=20
* Interestingly, the rate of loss of students at MSD is about the same
as the economic inflation rate.=20
* That means we can hold real dollar spending constant and keep the
amount of spending per child the same (i.e., freeze the annual budget =
until
the number of students starts increasing). This is assuming that =
students
are the true economic driver in government education.=20
* Fact #2: The rate at which staff members are being added to the MSD
payroll is about the same as the rate at which the enrollment is =
decreasing
(3% per year).=20
* Commentary:=20
* Of those 52 additional staff additions, 17 were teachers. However,
35 non-teaching full-time staff were also added to the payroll. These
additional 52 people were obviously needed to teach our 336 fewer =
students?=20
* Fact #3: In spite of a near four-fold increase in inflation-adjusted
spending, test scores have gone from a high of 95.2% in 1992 to a low of =
63%
* Commentary: This would imply a negative correlation between:=20
* Spending and test scores.=20
* Staff size and test scores=20
* Smaller classes and test scores=20
Can anyone please tell me what sense any of this makes? How is any of =
this
"for the children"? Perhaps Mike Curley can answer this because no one =
from
MSD or the school board has.
If our student enrollment continues to fall at the rate it has been, MSD
will reach 50% of its 1993 maximum size in the 2008-2009 school year. =
Can
anyone justify that we continue to increase inflation-adjusted spending =
when
we're about to educate half as many children? =20
As with other government organizations, I fear that self-perpetuation is =
the
actual goal within MSD.=20
Best,
Dale Courtney
Moscow, Idaho
1 Note: MSD Expenditures, Enrollment, Total School District Staff, and
Enrollment + Inflation are all expressed as a percentage increase over =
FY
1988 levels. The Test Score Percentile Rank is not measured as a change =
from
FY 1988, but rather shows how MSD students' composite average scores on =
the
Tests of Achievement and Proficiency (TAP) ranked, as a percentile, =
against
all test takers nationwide. Because the test score ranking is set =
against a
static 0 to 100 scale, it should not be used as a straight comparison to =
the
other measurements, which can increase indefinitely beyond 100%. The =
test
score rankings over time can be useful, however, for the purposes of
tracking performance trends.
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<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Visionaries: </FONT></DIV>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Yesterday, I received some interesting 15-year =
data from=20
MSD. I just completed analyzing and graphing it, and thought that some =
of my=20
<I>thoughtful</I> antagonists may enjoy wrestling through it with me. =
Here's=20
what I looked at:</FONT></P>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Expenditures</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Enrollment</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Test Scores</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>MSD Staffing<SUP>1</SUP></FONT> </LI></UL>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff><IMG height=3D457 src=3D"images/MSD_trends.jpg" =
width=3D750=20
border=3D0></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>When inflation is taken into consideration, the =
following=20
three <U>very</U> interesting trends come out:</FONT></P>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#800000>Fact #1: Adjusting for inflation, MSD's =
spending has=20
increased at a rate 3.7 times faster than student enrollment.</FONT>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Commentary: </FONT>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Interestingly, the rate of loss of =
students at MSD=20
is about the same as the economic inflation rate. </FONT>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>That means we can hold <U>real</U> =
dollar spending=20
constant and keep the amount of spending per child the same (i.e., =
freeze=20
the annual budget until the number of students starts increasing). =
This is=20
assuming that students are the true economic driver in government=20
education.</FONT> </LI></UL></LI></UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#800000>Fact #2: The rate at which staff members are =
being=20
added to the MSD payroll is about the same as the rate at which the =
enrollment=20
is decreasing (3% per year). </FONT>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Commentary:</FONT>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Of those 52 additional staff additions, =
17 were=20
teachers. However, 35 non-teaching full-time staff were also added =
to the=20
payroll. These additional 52 people were obviously needed to teach =
our 336=20
fewer students?</FONT> </LI></UL></LI></UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#800000>Fact #3: In spite of a near four-fold =
increase in=20
inflation-adjusted spending, test scores have gone from a high of =
95.2% in=20
1992 to a low of 63% </FONT>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Commentary: This would imply a negative =
correlation=20
between:</FONT>
<UL>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Spending and test scores. </FONT>
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Staff size and test scores</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Smaller classes and test scores</FONT>=20
</LI></UL></LI></UL></LI></UL>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Can <U>anyone</U> please tell me what sense any =
of this=20
makes? How is any of this "for the children"? Perhaps Mike Curley can =
answer=20
this because no one from MSD or the school board has.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>If our student enrollment continues to fall at =
the rate=20
it has been, MSD will reach 50% of its 1993 maximum size in the =
2008-2009 school=20
year. Can <U>anyone</U> justify that we continue to<U> increase</U>=20
inflation-adjusted spending when we're about to educate<U> half</U> as =
many=20
children? <U> </U></FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>As with other government organizations, I fear =
that=20
self-perpetuation is the actual goal within MSD. </FONT></P>
<P><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Best,<BR>Dale Courtney<BR>Moscow, =
Idaho</FONT></P>
<P><SUP>1 </SUP>Note: MSD Expenditures, Enrollment, Total School =
District Staff,=20
and Enrollment + Inflation are all expressed as a percentage increase =
over FY=20
1988 levels. The Test Score Percentile Rank is not measured as a change =
from FY=20
1988, but rather shows how MSD students' composite average scores on the =
Tests=20
of Achievement and Proficiency (TAP) ranked, as a percentile, against =
all test=20
takers nationwide. Because the test score ranking is set against a =
static 0 to=20
100 scale, it should not be used as a straight comparison to the other=20
measurements, which can increase indefinitely beyond 100%. The test =
score=20
rankings over time can be useful, however, for the purposes of tracking=20
performance trends.</P></BODY></HTML>
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