[Vision2020] The Bleeding Hasn't Stopped...

[Dale Courtney]

Visionaries,

I had a *very* interesting time at the Moscow Civic Association's meeting
last night to discuss School Facilities.  See, I've had a real hard time
understanding the MSD enrollment projections
(http://www.sd281.k12.id.us/GeneralInformation/files/Enrollment.pdf). 

MSD has averaged a loss of over 70 students per year for the last 7 years.
However, in projecting the loss for the future, MSD suddenly extrapolated
those losses to ~25 students per year. No one could explain to me what
caused that step-change. 

Last night, however, Dr. Candis R. Donicht verified my own suspicions. She
says that MSD will end this year with 2,298 total students. That's a
decrease this year of 67 students -- more than MSD expected to lose in the
next two years combined! They must be very shocked that their extrapolations
could be off by 187 percent!

I want to throw more cold water on their contention
(http://www.sd281.k12.id.us/GeneralInformation/files/movement.pdf) that
families with children are leaving the area. That's a bunch of hooey and
they know it. All the census bureau statistics show that the number of
school-aged children in the MSD region has increased by 20 percent! They
were talking about all the local housing that's being built for families --
yet the number of kids continues to decline. 

I would like to see MSD school board get their heads out of the sand and
acknowledge what the census statistics definitively show: 
- First, people are moving to Moscow and not putting their kids in the
government schools. 
- Second, that in 1990 private-school students made up 12.7 % of Moscow's
total K-12 enrollment; those private/homeschoolers made up 20% in the 2000
census.
- Finally, if this trend continues (and there's no reason to assume that it
won't; and Dr. Donicht couldn't refute that question when asked last night),
then by 2015, Moscow will have more students in private/homeschool than in
the government schools. 

I challenge *anyone* to demonstrate that my statistics are wrong. 

I also hope that the Moscow school board will cease their incessant whining
for more funds to educate a continuing decreasing student population. I'm
tired of being asked to increase my property taxes in order to support a
system that people are choosing not to use. There are other options that
allow parents to choose how best to educate their children (e.g., tax
credits). We need to aggressively examine these alternatives. 

Lastly, if MSD and MCA *really* want to have broad community involvement in
the decision making process, I suggest they follow their own "diversity"
mantra and have 20% of the MSD Board and School Facilities Board member be
represented by this non-existent, 20 percent tax payers. 

Not holding my breath for either challenge...

Best,
Dale Courtney